Fortunately, many of the models used in hurricane/typhoon forecasting have inherant and built-in biases. They all rely on persistance. It is this very reason you never see drastic revisions to previously issued forecast tracks from period to period. While position updates are provided every 3 hours, new forecast tracks are issued every 6 hours. My brother and his boat live in Ft. Meyers and I have been watching this storm with dedicated intent. My personal feelings over the last 36 hours have gone unchanged... I believe Irma will continue to drift more westward, to the point of setting her sights more on the Fla. Panhandle. With the absence of dominating steeing currents, the strong meteorological influence of the stronger than anticipated Bermuda Ridge will dictate the movement of this system. Authorities will be slow to drastically modify storm tracks for obvious reasons - the main one being that they have gained the publics undivided attention at this point and wouldn't want to lose face. And with the uncertainties of storm prediction science (even today), this is completely understandable. Wild modifications to any forecast track would tend to have a negative effect on authoritative credibilty. I know this playbook all too well as I've spent over 25 years in this same business. Quick to issue, slow to revise, is a mantra forecasters live by. I'm hoping for the best for the people of Florida and hope I am right on this one. Still, nobody should drop their guard or take any action inconsistent with what local authorities recommend.