TRADING S&P 07/08/2017 Daily insight, S&P futures, ES
This is my daily preparation for S&P futures (ES) trading and it is for your educational purpose only and definitely cannot be considered as financial advice. There is a substantial risk in derivative trading and it might not be suitable for you. Don't rely on past performance as it is not indicative of future results.
Considering the general performance of last 3 weeks and opening of new week inside previous week brings in the same core levels, that were relevant last week, which are 2447.5 as major resistance and 2402.25 as major support. Both levels are expected to be major targets as well.
As for today, we are inside Friday's range and due to lack of any significant news and usually low volumes after Nonfarm Payrolls. This means that primary hypothesis is that market is expected to be traded between two major Friday's volume areas the one was built between 2422.5 and 2424.0 prices and another one that was built between 2415 and 2416 prices.
If we get outside of these ranges Friday's top and bottom will perform as major support and resistance levels these are 2425 and 2412. The next targets outside of these levels are 2407.75 and 2429.75. However, such scenarios are less likely due to the reasons above, Monday after Nonfarm number and lack of any significant news for today. The summer, which already causing some slow down in the markets will also create more obstacles for more significant volatility.
I don't think ranges matter much anymore since if you buy enough future contracts you can move the market any way you want.
That is why I prefer one of the most traded products in futures for daytrading. For instance, less liquid and more volatile NQ (nasdaq) contracts have much more fake breakouts and more aggressively manipulated. It is also not that much about level , but area around that level.
You are right, I see several times per day in DOM, when bids or offers are being removed and then price breaks for 3-4 ticks and then all volumes are being absorbed by iceberg orders, after which market starts to rotate. But this also usually happens around critical prices. However, such manipulations are also have their targets and I'm trying to join such players if I see them. However, considering the fact that around 80% of trades are made by day traders, such moves are likely to end up around another critical level, where participation will be active enough to exit out of the large positions.