New Bitcoin ‘top signal’ is in – The bear market indicator you hate to see

Crypto IPOs are clustering again, echoing prior market-top timing patterns.

Are crypto IPOs the most accurate top signal, or just a tell investors keep retesting because it feels true during late-cycle heat?

The tape offers a clean cluster to examine. Coinbase’s direct listing arrived on April 14, 2021, the precise day Bitcoin set a then record near $64,000.

Stronghold Digital Mining priced its IPO on Oct. 19–20, 2021, about three weeks before Bitcoin’s Nov. 10 peak near $68,789.

This cycle, Bullish’s Aug. 13, 2025 debut and Figure’s Sept. 10, 2025 pricing landed within eight and four weeks of Bitcoin’s Oct. 6 all-time high near $126,198.

Grayscale’s public IPO filing on Nov. 13, 2025 followed the top by a little over a month, adding a late entry to the same window.

There is a familiar rhythm in play. During strong crypto advances, the path to public markets tends to open for exchanges, brokers, miners, and asset managers, often when volumes, fees, and media attention crest.

Crypto bull market IPOs
Coinbase in 2021 became the shorthand for top timing because the calendar lined up to the day. Stronghold’s placement came near the ultimate cycle high that November after the market paused in May through July.

In 2025, Bullish and Figure queued up in August and September, with Bitcoin completing the move in early October. The sequence neither proves a rule nor offers a clock; it gives portfolio managers a clean anchor for late-cycle monitoring because the dates are fixed, the filings reveal business mix, and the deals include book quality details.

The cluster helps frame risk appetite in real time. Bullish’s August debut drew heavy first-day trading and a valuation near the top of its range.

Figure priced at $25, according to the company, while Bitcoin’s October print set the cycle high across majors.

Then the tone shifted from listing to filing, with Grayscale showing $318.7 million in revenue and $203.3 million in net income for the first nine months of 2025 and acknowledging fee pressure in its public documents.

Gemini’s S-1 became public in mid-August, before the October high, which adds to the late-cycle crowding of exchange-centric activity.

Calculating the bull market IPO signal
A simple way to track the pattern is to measure days from each listing to the cycle top. The 2021 and 2025 windows fall into a bracket that feels tradeable, roughly T minus 60 days to T plus 30 days, where T is the all-time high.