RE: Blade Runner: Black Out 2022, 2036: Nexus Dawn, 2048: Nowhere to Run
It's a fun topic. I'll have to check out the movies and the books. I've read most of the books but there's a few titles I missed.
That said I think everyone is wrong. (hey...I'm a retired trucker...we know everything...just ask a trucker...all we have to do is sit and think...sooooo...we figure out stuff)
Why? I think everyone is wrong because their assumptions are wrong. For one thing (there are many, many things) they underestimate the complexity of the human brain. People talk about the human brain as if it were a computer. That's not true. It would be more accurate to think of the human brain as a widely distributed, massively parallel HUGELY redundant network OF networks.
Recent discoveries indicate that each neuron is the equivalent to a super-super-computer all by itself. There are millions (if not billions) of neurons in the human brain and trillions of interconnections. Don't expect to replicate that anytime soon.
But wait..there's more. That's just the hardware. We know a little bit about some of the minor, peripheral functions...such as sight, pattern recognition, walking (a rilly rilly HARD subject all by itself)...and yet..
We have yet to replicate a cockroach equivalent.
In fact we have zippo idea of how the mind works. Marvin Minsky wrote 'Societies of Mind" which is interesting. Of course there is the work with rat utopia (the 25 universe)...as well as the monkeysphere...but those are really just broad outlines.
I'm unconvinced that human level Artificial intelligence is possible...
Augementing human intelligence...using the human mind/brain as a kernel...is an entirely different subject.
I can't wait for a math plug in...
Check out Ray Kurzweil's stuff on this. Out of 147 predictions since the 1990's, 115 of them were correct, and another 12 were "essentially correct" (off by a year or two), giving his predictions a 86% accuracy rate. He disagrees with you. As complex as this network of networks is, humans have trouble understanding exponential growth (because we don't see it much in nature) and that's what technology is doing right now. The things you and I take for granted today would have been seen as impossible not that long ago and that pace of exponential growth is actually speeding up.
If we don't destroy ourselves first, it's going to happen pretty quickly.
I've read all about Ray Kurzweil...in fact I track his website daily.
I'm pretty used to people disagreeing with me....no surprise there.
I'd be more receptive to the concept of AI if I say some evidence instead of wishful thinking.
For a start...DEFINE the objective.
I've NOT seen a good definition of what IQ is much less "self aware".
If the objective can't be define...how do we know if we've reached it..or not?
Hi Everitt, you used check out what Machine Learning esp. Deep Learning can do it's amazing. I'm editing subtitles of our talks and YouTube is soo acurate by transcribing them, it's amazing. Check out Google i/o 2017 the machine learning ones taken from their playlist:
47 Effective TensorFlow for Non-Experts (Google I/O '17)
52 TensorFlow Frontiers (Google I/O '17)
74 Open Source TensorFlow Models (Google I/O '17)
82 Using Google Cloud and TensorFlow on Android Things
119 Start with this one ;)
126 Machine Learning APIs by Example
127 Google Keynote Highlights
148 Project Magenta: Music and Art with Machine Learning (Google I/O '17) - This one is very cool
why do you call it "learning"?
how is it different from...oh...pattern recognition or just plain old sorting?
Because it learn the features of say a picture and than goes in the details of a picture in a fractal pattern. Like I bet you don't even know how you recognize things, you'd have to think about it. Like a car has wheels etc. But then you recognize cars in 2 milliseconds, wait how did that happen? It's your hardware. Now computers can do this too, they can recognize images. They can see the difference between dog breeds, I can't.
ok...seems reasonable.
Seeing is believing :)
GreaT POINTS EVERiTT !! - ))
WhaT is " iQ " ?? - ))
.. well, from an english sPEAKinG perspective ..
i = 9
Q = 17
SO ... iQ = 917 ... = 1 'in' 97 = 98 - ))
98 is the MiRRoR of .. 89 - ))
89 = 15 'in' 74 = O 'in' G D = GOD - ))
SO .. "iQ" = the MiRRoR of GOD - ))
How's that .. for an explanation ?? - ))
lovelovelove )))
greb'Z )
problems with grammar and syntax you have.
i try .. but, the wires are spun up - ((
.. like a seven year old's first day, with a spin caster - ))
Define Intelligence for me please.
Now we're playing the Wittgenstein game of arguing over language.
actually I'm not.
if you say you're going to make an "x"
ok..what's an "x"
define it...
if you don't know what it is...how do you know if you've made it or not?
It's discussed in Nick Bostrom's paper which I link to from my post. I'll grant you it's a very difficult thing to define. The experts in this field are working on multiple definitions (general intelligence, super intelligence, etc). Defining intelligence leads to defining consciousness (only conscious and semi-conscious beings exhibit what we might agree through consensus as being intelligence) and defining consciousness is what this whole project will accomplish (as we understand the nuts and bolts of the human brain and how it give rise to various emergent properties of the mind). So, in some sense, it's a "we'll know it when we see it" answer. The Turing test is one example we have to nail in to down further, but there will be many more, I'm sure. Beating the world champion at Go was a big step forward, but still not general. It's coming though. I see no evidence to believe otherwise.
I have every confidence that 'we'll' be able to augment and enhance people. 'plug-ins' for new and better senses.intelligence, skills, reaction times...etc..etc..etc.... However...I've seen exactly zero indication that we'll be able to make people from scratch.
It's possible by the time we do that, we'll be indistinguishable from that which we create in terms of being an augmented biological cybernetic organism.
I have no difficulty understanding augmentation. In fact I are. I have a gold crown. My toof is augmented. But wait..there's MORE...I were corrective lenses...AND not only that...I take both Blood Pressure medicine AND diabetes medicine.
I'm augmented.
That's a fact jack..the question is not IF..but to what degree. How much.
I see no limit....
I see ZERO evidence of building an intelligence from ground...uh...Zero.
Augmentation..yes.....construction..not so much.