Covid: UK death rate 'no longer Europe's worst' by winter

duniapersexan (25)in #news • 4 years ago

The UK death rate during the second wave of the pandemic was not the worst in Europe - but it remained one of the 10 worst-affected countries.

By the end of June 2020, the UK had the highest excess mortality in Europe, according to figures from the ONS.

But by December it had been overtaken by Poland, Spain, Belgium, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Slovenia.

Nevertheless, the UK had one of the highest excess death rates among people under the age of 65 in 2020 at 7.7%.

Excess mortality is the number of deaths by any cause that happen over and above the average for that time of year.

Meanwhile, the government's separate daily UK coronavirus figures show the number of deaths within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test are continuing to fall.

On Friday, the UK reported a further 101 deaths and 4,802 cases, according to the data. Last Friday, 175 deaths and 6,609 cases were recorded.

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The UK saw 7% more deaths than normally expected during 2020. Within the UK, England's death rate was 8% above expected levels across the whole year, Scotland's was 6%, Northern Ireland 5% and Wales 4%.

The Office for National Statistics figures cover up to 18 December so do not include deaths from this year. About a third of the UK's Covid deaths have happened since then.

Only Bulgaria recorded a higher rate for under-65s - 12.3% - among the countries analysed by the ONS.

Dr Annie Campbell, from the ONS, said the figures showed the pandemic had not "exclusively" affected the oldest age groups in the UK.

For deaths among all age groups Poland ended 2020 with the highest rate (11.6% above the five-year average), followed by Spain (10.6%) and Belgium (9.7%).

England ranked seventh on this list (7.8%) with the UK eighth (7.2%).

All-cause mortality allows countries to be compared more easily, even if they record Covid-19 deaths in different ways. It also reflects the indirect impact of the pandemic, such as deaths from other causes that might be related to delayed access to treatment.

The figures also take account of the average age of a country's population and the average level of deaths in recent years.

Meanwhile, separate ONS figures suggest infection levels have continued to decrease across England and Wales but have "levelled off" in Northern Ireland and increased in Scotland.

An estimated one in 335 people in the UK had Covid-19 in the week to 13 March, according to the figures, down from one in 280 last week.

In England, the figure is at its lowest since the week to 24 September, when the estimate stood at one in 470.

The ONS results, based on tests from people whether or not they had symptoms, also show:

In England about one in 340 people was estimated to have the virus, down from one in 270 the previous week
In Wales the figure was one in 430, down from one in 365
In Northern Ireland it was one in 315, broadly similar to one in 310 the previous week
In Scotland it was one in 275 - up from one in 320.
The falls in England were driven by falls in the West Midlands, the East, South West and London, the ONS said. The rest of England has seen little change in infection rates and there are hints of an increase in the East Midlands.

The ONS said infections among secondary aged children had decreased and "appear to be levelling" for primary aged children.

However, it said the figures were from the first week since schools returned in England and therefore it was too early to say whether this had influenced infection rates.

The latest R number - which represents the average number people each infected person passes the virus on to - is between 0.6 and 0.9, according to the government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies.

Last week the figure was estimated at between 0.6 and 0.8.

When the figure is above one, an outbreak can grow exponentially, but when it is below one, it means the epidemic is shrinking.

It comes as Prime Minister Boris Johnson is to receive his first dose of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine after reassuring the public it was safe.

Several European countries are to resume using the AstraZeneca jab after the European Medicines Agency confirmed it was "safe and effective".

The regulator reviewed the vaccine amid fears about blood clots, but said it was "not associated" with an increased risk of clots and the benefits outweighed any risks.

More than 100,000 people in the UK have died from a virus, that, this time last year, felt like a far-off foreign threat. How did we come to be one of the countries with the worst death tolls?

There is no quick answer to that question, and there is sure to be a long and detailed public inquiry once the pandemic is over. But there are plenty of clues that, when pieced together, help build a picture of why the UK has reached this devastating number.

Some will point a finger at the government - its decision to lock-down later than much of western Europe, the stuttering start to its test-and-trace network and the lack of protection afforded to care home residents.

Others will spotlight deeper rooted problems with British society - its poor state of public health, with high levels of obesity, for example.

Others, still, will note that some of the UK's great strengths - its position as a vibrant hub for international air travel, its ethnically diverse and densely-packed urban populations - exposed its vulnerability to a virus that spreads effortlessly between people.

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In some people's eyes, the UK's island status might have helped it. New Zealand, Australia and Taiwan managed to stop the virus getting a foothold and deaths have been kept to a minimum - Australia has seen fewer deaths throughout the pandemic than the UK is recording every day on average.

All introduced strict border restrictions immediately and lockdowns to contain the virus before it had spread. The UK did not. It was not until June that quarantine rules were introduced for all arrivals and even then travel corridors were soon set up, relaxing the rules for travellers from certain countries. Only this month were these scrapped.

Prof Devi Sridhar, an expert in public health from Edinburgh University, is one of those who has been critical of the approach the UK has taken from the start.

She says the UK, like much of Europe, was "complacent" about the threat of infectious disease - choosing to treat the new coronavirus "like flu" and allowing it to spread, while talking about the desire to achieve herd immunity.

This all changed in late March, when a full lockdown eventually came. But there was a crucial delay of a week which is estimated to have cost more than 20,000 lives, according to government modeller Prof Neil Ferguson, because of how quickly infection rates were doubling at that point.

This, of course, is said with the benefit of hindsight. Government modellers themselves acknowledge the data was "really quite poor" making it difficult to make a decision that would have significant repercussions. It is a point acknowledged by Prof Chris Whitty, the UK's chief medical adviser. Speaking in the summer he said there had been "very limited information" in early March.

By then, the virus was ripping through care homes. Around 30% of deaths in the first wave happened in care homes; 40% if you include care home residents who died in hospital.

Those at the heart of government acknowledge mistakes were made. UK chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said recently: "The lesson is go earlier than you think you want to, go harder than you think you want to, and go a bit broader than you think you want to in terms of applying the restrictions."

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By May, restrictions were beginning to be eased. But was this too soon?

The government seized on the relative lull to focus on building what the prime minister promised would be a "world-beating" test-and-trace system. The idea was that new outbreaks could be nipped in the bud, with comprehensive tracking by a centralised team of tracers.

The mere fact this had to be done some months after the virus had struck, illustrates another factor behind the high number of deaths - the UK was simply not prepared for a pandemic of this nature in the way some Asian nations had been. Countries such as South Korea and Taiwan had established test-and-trace systems in place that were ready to be activated.

The UK had a chance to bed in its system in the summer but it was riven with teething problems, with tracers struggling to reach many contacts and the testing capacity slowing down as demand rose.

Low levels of infection over the summer had created a false sense of security.

Desperate to boost the economy, the government launched the Eat Out to Help Out scheme, offering people discounted meals out during August. To what extent it contributed to the rise in the autumn is much argued about but certainly some doctors blame it in part for an increase in patients seen.

The truth is the virus never went away. Testing in the summer showed even at the lowest levels there were still around 500 cases a day being diagnosed - and random testing in the population subsequently showed the true level may have been twice that.

#uk #covid

4 years ago in #news by duniapersexan (25)

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