The day someone celebrated our impending energy crisis

It has been about a month since the Supreme Court of the United States ruled against the application of the generalized tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on foreign products.

According to the judges, the United States is not in a state of national emergency, as claimed by the president, and therefore the implementation of certain economic measures, such as generalized tariffs, goes beyond the powers of the presidential administration, effectively violating domestic laws and regulations.

As one might expect, a long list of trade partners (European nations, but especially China) breathed a sigh of relief after the court’s ruling, essentially seeing their competitiveness restored in a huge market like the American one.

Selling products abroad at their normal commercial price or with a 100% tax burden obviously makes a huge difference in terms of competitiveness compared to domestic players. However, alongside those who had legitimate reasons to celebrate, there was also a whole crowd of know-it-alls, ready to welcome the news with trumpets in hand purely for ideological reasons.

_{Image created with Leonardo.ai}

Regardless of what he does, Trump is mostly described by these people as a madman, a friend of other madmen, a fascist, a warmonger, a dangerous man, and so on. One of his defeats is seen as their victory, even though most of the time no one has actually taken the time to analyze the issues in depth.

To be clear, I am far from wanting to defend the President of the United States, whom I consider, like anyone pulling the strings in the world, an ambiguous and hard-to-define figure (and I am not even willing to completely deny some of the common labels attributed to him).

However, if after wars, Mani Pulite, the Second Republic, current politicians, Freemasonry, and the Epstein case we still haven’t understood that reasoning through rigid ideologies is at the very least outdated, then it might be better to throw in the towel, take up gardening full-time, and choose a comfortable retirement at the Dante Alighieri.

The only real questions to ask in this matter are: what has been the actual outcome of the Supreme Court’s decision to cancel the tariffs? And, knowing the political and business history of Donald Trump, could we really expect him to take the blow without reacting?

_{Donald Trump, Ike Hayman, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons}

The answer to the second question seems fairly obvious, but perhaps not as much as the first, which leads us to the war with Iran. Facing the economic mess left by Biden (or by whoever was effectively running the White House), the Trump administration had two options: financial default or a rapid rebalancing of the trade balance, which was heavily tilted toward imports.

With tariffs removed, it became necessary to act in another way to achieve that goal. And what better opportunity than a war in the Gulf, especially with loyal Israel playing the role of the main villain? The United States probably expected a “Venezuela-style” outcome and some form of control over the region’s oil, but given Iran’s resistance and the lack of a popular uprising, a fallback plan became necessary: artificially increasing prices in Europe.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has nearly doubled the price of oil per barrel, and it is Europe that has paid the price. The plan of Trump and Netanyahu appears aimed at completely destroying not only Iran’s productive capacity but that of the entire Gulf region, with the ayatollahs’ country acting as an involuntary accomplice by striking neighboring states as a form of retaliation.

Once again, the calculation proved accurate: if Iran must go down, even in terms of any future recovery, it certainly does not want to be the only country in the region to do so. A kind of “if we suffer, everyone suffers.”

_{Miladfarhani, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons}

Instead of predictable tariffs, manageable at least from a commercial standpoint and negotiable politically, we now find ourselves in a situation of total chaos, destined to worsen over the coming months. For Europe, oil suppliers are becoming fewer and fewer, forcing countries—unless there is an unlikely reversal toward Russia—to rely almost exclusively on the United States.

Like it or not, Trump is so far the real winner of this situation. While in Europe discussions about possible energy rationing after the summer are already beginning, somewhat surprisingly—but not too much—there is one country that could emerge from this chaos as a new leading force, thanks to well-considered decisions made in recent times and, above all, the Mattei Plan established with Africa.

Yes, once again, like it or not to the “party loyalists,” that country is Italy. But that is another story, and it deserves to be explored in a separate post.

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@girolamomarotta, @sardrt, @mikitaly, @mad-runner, @famigliacurione

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