Will AI be surpassed by quantum?

There's a well-known saying among tech writers like myself — you can either explain quantum computing accurately or in a way that people can understand, but you can't do both.

That's because quantum mechanics — a strange and somewhat theoretical branch of physics — is incredibly difficult to grasp.

It involves tiny particles acting in ways that defy our normal understanding of the world.
And this unusual behavior has opened the door to a whole new realm of scientific potential.

The mind-bending complexity of quantum is likely part of the reason it hasn’t received as much attention as AI, which is currently the tech world's big star.

This is despite a series of major quantum announcements from big companies like Microsoft and Google, among others.

Generally speaking, we think of quantum more in terms of physical devices like sensors and computers, while AI is more about software — it still needs hardware to function.

If we combine the two, we could one day have a new type of technology that's more powerful than anything we have today… although the word "might" is doing a lot of the heavy lifting there, according to Brian Hopkins, VP and principal analyst at research firm Forresters.

"The potential is there, but the jury is still out," he says.

"Early experiments show promise, but they all suggest that we need much more powerful quantum computers and ongoing innovative research to truly apply quantum effects to AI."

In terms of value, both fields are very profitable.
The quantum sector could be worth up to $97 billion by 2035, according to McKinsey, a market research group.

Meanwhile, AI's value is expected to be in the trillions.
But both face the challenges of hype and the risk of overestimation.

"I used to believe that quantum computing was the most-hyped technology until the AI craze took off," jokes Mr. Hopkins.

In mid-October, analysts warned that some key quantum stocks could drop by as much as 62%, and concerns about an AI bubble are growing louder.

Quantum and AI both have something in common — they make errors. We've become used to the "hallucinations" that generative AI tools can sometimes create, but quantum systems face a different kind of problem.

These errors happen because the particles used in quantum computing operate in a very delicate state.
Even the smallest change in the environment, like light or noise, can mess things up.

Keeping this environment stable is tough.
This week, Elon Musk mentioned on X that quantum computers might work best in the "permanently shadowed craters of the moon."

Quantum computers don't look like the machines we're used to.
There's no standard design, but they are still quite big for now.

They are usually found in labs, and the most common design is inspired by the shape of a jellyfish.

They need extremely cold temperatures and lasers.
You won't find them in your home, let alone in your pocket.

They're also a bit flashy — researchers have discovered that using synthetic diamonds to make qubits, which are the basic parts of quantum computers, helps them work closer to room temperature.

A luxury jewelry company called De Beers has a subsidiary named Element Six.
They say they launched the world's first general-purpose quantum-grade diamond in 2020. They have also worked with Amazon Web Services to improve artificial diamonds for future quantum networks.

These machines are still in their early stages. It's believed there are about 200 of them worldwide, though China hasn't shared how many they have. Despite that, quantum experts are making big claims about what these machines could do.

Rajeeb Hazra, the leader of Quantinuum, a company valued at $10 billion, told the BBC's Tech Life podcast, "As consumers, we will feel the effects of quantum computing in almost every part of our lives."

He said, "In terms of applications, quantum computing is as big, if not bigger, than AI."

Prof Sir Peter Knight, one of the UK's leading quantum experts, said, "Things that would take the entire age of the universe to calculate on the most powerful supercomputer could be done in seconds," he told Dr Jim Al-Khalili on BBC Radio 4's The Life Scientific.

So, what really big, life-changing things could these machines do once they are ready?

Like AI, a lot of quantum research is focused on improving healthcare.
Quantum computers could one day easily go through billions of molecular combinations to find new drugs and medicines. This process, which now takes years on regular computers, could be done much faster.

To give you an idea of how powerful this could be, in December 2024, Google introduced a new quantum chip called Willow.
It claimed this chip could solve a problem in five minutes that would take the world's fastest supercomputer 10 septillion years—10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years—to complete.

Hazra says this could lead to personalized medicine, where instead of getting a standard drug, you receive a medicine specifically made for your body that is most likely to work for you.

This could also help in other chemical processes, such as creating fertilizers more efficiently, which could be a big boost for farmers around the world.

Quantum sensors, which work using the rules of quantum mechanics to measure things with extreme accuracy, already exist.
They are used in atomic clocks.

In 2019, scientists at Nottingham University placed them in a device the size of a bike helmet and used them in a new system to do non-intrusive brain scans for children with conditions like epilepsy.

Ryan Hill, the researcher, explained that the early years of life are crucial for developing human thinking, but studying this process has been difficult because of the limitations in brain scanning technology.

One major issue has been the need for movement, as traditional, large, fixed scanners require patients to remain absolutely still.

This lack of movement not only makes it hard to see how the brain works in real life but also limits who can be scanned, especially children, who are the biggest challenge.

Last year, scientists at Imperial College in London tested an alternative to GPS satellite navigation, called a "quantum compass," on the city's underground Tube system.

GPS doesn't work underground, but this system does.
The idea is that it can more accurately track and locate objects anywhere in the world, both above and below ground, unlike GPS signals that can be blocked, jammed, or affected by weather conditions.

Dr Michael Cuthbert, director of the UK's National Quantum Computing Centre, says, "The UK economy depends on GPS, costing about £1bn per day for position, navigation, and timing.
This is often seen as a defense need, but all our financial transactions rely on a timestamp for security."

He explains, "By using quantum clocks, gyroscopes, and magnetometers, we can build a stronger system that is less vulnerable to jamming and false signals in our important navigation systems.
"

The National Grid is also looking into quantum research to see if it can help with "load shedding" — figuring out how to get the most power out of thousands of generators from different energy sources as demand changes in real time, which helps avoid blackouts.

Airbus also worked with the UK-based quantum company IonQ to test quantum-based algorithms that help load cargo more efficiently onto airplanes.
Even a small shift in an airplane's center of gravity can use thousands of kilos more fuel.

So far, everything seems okay, but there's another important topic we need to discuss: secrets.

It's commonly understood that today's encryption methods — the way we keep both personal information and classified government secrets secure — might eventually be cracked by quantum technology.
This type of technology is capable of going through every possible combination at an incredibly fast rate, eventually unscrambling the data.

It's also well known that countries are already collecting encrypted data from one another with the intention of decrypting it in the future.

As Prof Alan Woodward, a cybersecurity expert from Surrey University, explains, "It's called harvest now, decrypt later."

He adds, "The methods to break current public key encryption are waiting for a fully functional quantum computer."

Because of the high risk involved, it's assumed that everyone should start using quantum-resistant encryption now.

The time when a fully working quantum computer becomes available is sometimes called Q-day.
While there's no exact date, Brian Hopkins from Forrester suggests it could happen around 2030.

Some companies, like Apple and the secure messaging app Signal, have already introduced what they believe to be quantum-resistant encryption keys.
However, these new keys can't be applied to data that was already encrypted using older methods.

That's already a major issue.
In October, Daniel Shiu, who previously led cryptographic design at GCHQ, the UK's intelligence, security, and cyber agency, told the Sunday Times that it's "credible that almost all UK citizens will have had their data compromised" by state-sponsored cyber attacks from China. That data has been stored and is waiting to be decrypted and analyzed once the right technology becomes available.