Retire

in #retire7 days ago

Even though the 4% rule was established by backtesting a portfolio of stocks and bonds, it's still the number I'd recommend to friends and family.

A FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) X account recently suggested 8% instead because "a conservative estimate for Bitcoin's annualized growth rate is 25%."

Over the last 5 years, Bitcoin's annualized return was ~7%. Backtesting an 8% rule starting in March 2021 critically fails and demonstrates the risk of drawing too heavily from your savings with a volatile asset.

I do think that 4% will end up being too conservative, but I'd rather leave this world with coins left to give to my descendants rather than find myself dependent on them later in life.
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