FED decision of rate cuts on January are not expecting and JP Morgan thinking on this.

As of January 21, 2026, the outlook for a Federal Reserve rate cut in February and the impact of recent CPI data suggests a period of cautious optimism for the crypto market.

Fed Interest Rate Outlook: February 2026
There is no scheduled FOMC meeting in February; the next critical decisions are set for January 28 and March 18, 2026.

January Decision: Leading financial institutions like J.P. Morgan expect the Fed to remain on hold at the end of January, keeping the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75%.

Market Divergence: While some economists believe the case for near-term cuts is "weak" due to a resilient economy, market participants are still pricing in roughly two quarter-point cuts for later in 2026, with the first likely not arriving until June.

Projections: The Fed's own "Dot Plot" currently signals only one 25-basis-point cut for the entirety of 2026.

CPI Data & Crypto Market Momentum
The latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released on January 13, 2026, showed that inflation is easing, which has historically been a bullish signal for digital assets.

Recent Performance: December 2025 Core CPI printed at 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest since 2021. This "cooling" inflation helped propel Bitcoin to a high of $94,400 on January 18.

Expected Movement:

Bullish Case: If the next CPI report (scheduled for February 11) continues to trend lower, it will increase the likelihood of the Fed adopting a "dovish" stance, potentially pushing Bitcoin toward the $100,000 resistance level.

Volatility Drivers: Traders should remain "nimble" as political factors—such as potential tariffs from the new administration—could cause unexpected spikes in inflation and trigger quick shifts in market sentiment.

Key Levels to Watch: In the coming weeks, Bitcoin's major support is viewed at $88,000–$93,000, while a break above $94,810 would signal further short-term momentum.