I have written about this before and voiced my concern over recent HF20 updates.

After the last crash the debt ratio is at 7.21% and we are still printing SBD at 100% rate. We are heading straight for the 10% haircut at which point the peg can no longer be saved.
source

I did predict this would happen in a few years after the next Bull market, but if it happens in this bear market that would be extremely bad for steem overall.

Converting will of course help and we 'solve' the problem by inflating the steem pool. But that assumes that many people will sell their SBD at values slightly below 1$ since the masses will not manually convert as they are completely unaware of the problems.