The rise of the robots – will your job be gone in coming years?

in #science6 years ago (edited)

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According to the University of Oxford, almost 50% of all jobs will be replaced by robots in years to come. Robots or AI will one day do your work potentially. What does this mean for you? Will you enjoy more leisure time or will you be left without a means to make money to survive?

Robots and AI are already radically changing the way we see work and employment. In the past eras of technological revolution, entire labor forces were able to adapt and move into new fields of industry, but that doesn’t mean the next technological revolution will be as smooth. Machine learning is on the rise. Augmented and virtual reality is entering our reality at a rapid pace. Now not only is the concept of work becoming redefined but even reality is not what it was. Soon we may not even be able to tell the difference between real and virtual realities as simulated life merges into our mainstream living like a subtle tidal swell in the zeitgeist of tomorrow. A sea change is upon us as a tidal shift occurs.

And it’s already here. In 2016 Amazon increased their transport robots from 30 000 to 45 000. Initially it was seen as a possible cause for loss of jobs but on the contrary, more than 100 000 new jobs were subsequently added over the following 18 months. So as old jobs are replaced, it seems as if new ones will emerge.

Similarly, the financial sector has had algorithmic traders buying and selling stocks and shares on Wall St and the like for years already. They are faster and better than humans at trading by far, since trading is all about math and probability, which is programmable. In cryptocurrency, for example, where there is trading 24/7, robot trading software can trade all day and night without the need for sleep like regular human traders. This is naturally a huge benefit in a constantly changing market. How often have we been observing the market for a good trade only to see it slip us by because we had to take rest on our side of the planet while the other side traded in full daylight?

Robot analysts are in fact taking out not the lower labor force jobs but also the top skilled analysts and financial advisers who usually make around $350 000 to $500 000 a year. Imagine saving that much on salaries in your company. Even jobs like journalism are being taken over by robot writers. What might have taken writers hundreds of hours to compile can now be done by a template robot in a fraction of the time.

And these AI workers are popping up in some unexpected places as the years unfold. No job is safe anymore.

“It's quite simple: if your job can be easily explained it can be automated, if it can't it wont.” Anders Sandberg from Oxford

The future of work is going to look quite different. This may affect countries differently depending on their fundamentals I would presume. For example a third world country with already high unemployment may be slower to initiate AI but if it does it’s possible unemployment will rise, particularly among unskilled labor. As a result we may need to rethink our definition of work or create new types of work. At times like these a Universal Basic Income (UBI) will be appealing to some countries.

The good news is that in all probability the jobs of the future have not even been thought of yet. Technology moves so fast that even a few years ago there was no such thing as a SEO specialist to improve your online reach, or even a website designer to build your ad page for you. All the IT and tech jobs are constantly evolving. And in the future many more of us may have the time to do art and contemplate the philosophical meaning of life while robots do the much-needed jobs to keep the world turning.

The potential for a dystopian future, where humans are no longer needed by the elite and slowly done away with by sterilization or decreased breeding, does begin to look like a possibility, particularly with the Georgia Guide Stones telling us that the world should ideally be half a billion citizens. Will the elite cull us in the future to fit their small population agenda? Or will we come up with new ways to employ the millions of uneducated masses? Or will we simply give everyone free money to live on, like the unemployment benefits that used to be made available in some countries in the past? Socialism, where the state feeds and clothes the masses, is somewhat frowned upon by many due to its dubious misuse in the past, but isn’t the UBI just more of the same?

Surely the masses will not be content to just sit around unproductive for all their lives? Perhaps playing computer games all day will be a pleasant pastime by then, as it is for kids today already, particularly when augmentation arrives. Hopefully by then they will have in-game credits where they can earn an income or trade credits which can be used in real world cases, like for food and health. What is your forecast for the future on planet earth for the masses of unemployable humanity as the robots take over the jobs? Let us know in the comments below.

Ref: https://bigthink.com/big-think-books/the-robots-are-coming

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Hey Julian! It's interesting - that you linked Universal Basic Income with socialism. I never thought about it in that way before. I was a proponent for it, but on second thoughts, I'm not very sure if it is also a means of keeping everyone satisfied at a low minimum standard of living.

That, would be very dystopian-like indeed.

Yes I'm no expert, but the concept of the UBI is a very complex one to see objectively. It may foster a lower survival mode of little creativity, because necessity is the mother of invention so if you have your basic needs met, you may end up vegetating and not creating, which is not ideal for the masses but may pacify us so the elite can carry on growing. The pros and cons of it are intricate.

UBI is absolutely a socialist policy. It is an allocation of the tax budget (and therefore paid for by tax payers). Socialist (government-controlled/centralized) economic policy is the opposite of free market policy... and in every case, free market allows for competitive solutions which gives us the best possible solution... UBI from taxation is not a free market solution, and therefore does not get the benefit of "best possible value" that a true free market enables.

Dear @jbgarrison72

Tax budget is build on tax payers but also on corporations that are paying taxes.

Imagine scenario, where corporations need to pay higher taxes for "access to the market". At some stage those taxes will means so so so much more than all taxation coming from "humans".

UBI can happen. That's an economic model that could be achieved in the future. But the biggest challenge is social impact on us. I can forsee large scale of suicides being a problem.

Yours
Piotr

There are some smoke and mirrors with the presentation and understanding of corporations. In reality, as you know, a "corporation" as it exists to day is a government creation (the fiat decree that allows the corporation to come into existence is a charter or license). Corporations are really just "government" warrants which place them farther away from an actual free market... especially through the displacement of liability (individuals are protected by government from the consequences that a single person not operating under the government shielding of "corporation" would not be protected from).

Corporations are another way for government to maintain control of who does business and to stifle undesired competition for goods and services it decides to maintain firm control on. Government only selectively regulates "corporations," ultimately to its own benefit (and more on point, to the benefit of it's chief influencers/owners).

The free market always regulates from the opposite direction, that is, rather than shutting out/regulating out competition... it always provides and open avenue for more new and better services and products to emerge in the gap left by bad business practices.

Such a free market always creates more value because it only ADDS value whereas government regulation always works by LIMITING value so that its favored "entities" can thrive without competition.

Thus, a free market, which always presents new niches of value, allows ANYONE who desires to work and improve his/her economic status to go forth and do so to the best of his/her ability and... to profit!

A regulated government environment, kills value and through taxation and distributed "free stuff" (to include any sort of UBI), it kills incentive to improve one's economic situation through producing more and better.

Thank you for that brilliant comment @jbgarrison72

Dear friend @julianhorack, thank you for sharing this publication with us.

The potential for a dystopian future, where humans are no longer needed by the elite and slowly done away with by sterilization or decreased breeding, does it begin to look like a possibility, particularly with the Georgia Guide Stones telling us that the world should ideally be half a billion citizens. Will the elite cull us in the future to fit their small population agenda? Or will we come up with new ways to employ the millions of uneducated masses? Or will we simply give everyone free money to live on, like the benefits that used to be made available in some countries in the past?

Friend all this seems a frightening and daunting scenario for many, it is true that technology is advancing at an accelerated pace and it seems imminent that this happens. I also think that as you wrote at the beginning, new jobs will arise so that people can generate income, a clear example is the cryptocurrencies, years ago no one imagined that with virtual money could bring food to your table.

Time will tell what will be our species and where we are going to stop with all these technological advances, for now we will continue adapting to the things that are emerging along the way.

Thanks for this great post.
Pr EV

Hi @julianhorack and @crypto.piotr
I have a different view on the subject. When I look at life I look at the process of evolution. The species evolved from previously existing species.
The new species were more adapt at facing the challenges thrown at them.
Even withing a give species with every new generation there is change and sign of evolution.
Coming to the topic of us humans right from birth we learn new skills, imbibe and evolve. So change and learning are part of evolution and there is no escape.
Had we not evolved we would be still hanging and jumping from trees and not having this discussion.

So whatever changes occur and whatever challenges our we as a species are fully adapt in dealing with it. Yes there would be new set of jobs that would evolve and so there would be opportunities to learn train our selves , get new skills and develop our brains further.
This is the positive side of the situation and I believe it is upto us to convert the challenges into opportunities.

Dear @thetimetravelerz

Very wise words!

Thank you again for your super-valuable feedback. I absolutely love reading your comments!

The new species were more adapt at facing the challenges thrown at them.

I wonder if that means that we can always adapt. Animals also always have been adapting until smart spieces (humans) dominated their world. Perhaps we will adapt too and we will live soon in "Human ZOO" ?:)

Yours
Piotr

Ha ha. Ha love your valuable comments buddy
Does it mean some of us would graduate from the human circus to live in a human zoo ?
You take care buddy ;)

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WOW! @julianhorack

IA is an exciting topic,
I hope the robots do not take our jobs for the next few years, I think that on the contrary they could only bring improvements and advances in our work environment!
It has always been a deep topic of debate,
IF THE MAN OR THE MACHINE!
WHO WILL PREVAIL?
WHO WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE WORLD?

DEFINITIVE RESPONSE IS: ?

I congratulate you, great post, you have my total support
I hope you continue with this interesting topic ...

Bye, I upvote & Follow

Thank you @nachomolina, you are very kind.

Yes the AI of the future can be a great support and assistance to humans in the work place and at home, so I'm hopeful for the best with technology.

Hi @nachomolina

Big thx for sharing your opinion. Appreciate your time :)

Enjoy your sunday,
Cheers,
Piotr

Hey @julianhorack,
great article and a nice read. I think the "easy jobs" will dissapear and will be handled by robots. I think we are in place to think about creativity and new solutions.
Not based on numbers but trying things out :)
I only see the problem that some people have no opportunity to work in a creative job. Or a highly specialized one, we have to think about a solution for them.

Cheers Max

Dear @mcnestler

Thank you for sharing your view on that particular topic with me. Appreciate it a lot.

ps. your profile says: "Social Entrepreneur". Would you mind telling me more about it? what do you do? Something related to blockchain by any chance?

Yours
Piotr

Hey, @crypto.piotr thank you for your reply :)
I state social entrepreneur because I was writing my master thesis about social entrepreneurs. Back in university, I wanted to reform the learning system. I wanted to bring the research paper online and combine it with a subscription model so the general public could also have access to it. Unfortunately, I did not have the time to do it, but every business idea also has some social aspects in my opinion.
Cheers,
Max

Thank you for always being so responsive @mcnestler :)

The only real "jobs" any human performs are eating, sleeping, procreating, protecting offspring... and any tasks in support of those primary ones.

The ideal outcome is that robots which "produce" more than can be consumed such that they benefit and enhance human "work" will be tolerated. Those that do not will find themselves buried somewhere in the back 40 (along with any such human masters that think to infringe upon other humans through leveraging control of said "mal-productive" robots).

I am not really worried about my job or my future, because I don't care. I changed my profession (including education and papers) 14 times. Not everybody will be able to do so, can afford it or pay for the study (good internet exists and no one cares about papers, etc any longer).

Some jobs will always exist because people want personal interaction. A robot can not give it to you but will probably be a better doctor as mine is.

Customer services already work with computers and they are too stupid (badly programmed) to understand your question unless you talk like an imbecile. So people will be needed there.

Not everybody can be an engineer but the good news is there is a huge lack of plumbers and auto mechanics.

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Dear @wakeupkitty

I changed my profession (including education and papers) 14 times. Not everybody will be able to do so

Wow. Being able to adapt is surely your strong feature.

Thanks for taking the time to share your opinion with us. Appreciate it. Have a great sunday ahead.

Yours, Piotr

I wish you a great 🌞day as well, I am.off to bed.

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Greetings @julianhorack, get here thanks to @crypto.piotr, excellent article, as always thanks for recommending me good readings.

I start by saying no, or it is not so usual that I start to think that especially in these times (because of the country situation, and the state of the semester in the university) but if at some point with some friends and engineers and others that are as I am still studying, we have discussed about that.

While it is true that we as humans are limited by certain qualities whether physical, mental, natural to say them in some way, is something that these technologies lack (referring to artificial intelligence and robots) as we know or either they are independent or they are mostly semiautomatic or automatic, but to a certain extent, since without a programmer behind them they could not get where they are.

We must bear in mind that the growth of these technologies has been rapid and has not yet reached a ceiling so to speak (you can not see it either, as they are increasingly able to perform better and faster tasks than we do in the the same time we could not) which for a company would be a benefit monetarily speaking.

Of course, many jobs are going to go down because due to the growth that will represent these in the industries from manufacturing to design, they will greatly reduce the presence of humans who will either have to look for other employment or training in the works of tomorrow that may be related (I think) to the world of computer science, but we must note that not everyone is useful for that and that you can not have everyone doing the same thing because nothing makes sense.

That's why I also think that maybe (there are) or jobs or sub-jobs with a modest payment (similar to a pension) for all those people who are not able to work in environments where everything is controlled by robots because you can not sustain an economy in the great style of a government like Maduro where everything is money given right and left to people because obviously you generate inflation and other particular qualities of these practices ...

Let's hope that here comes that time we can adapt or at best be in one of those jobs where we can not at least be replaced because I also think that emotionally affect people, because if someone kills himself studying for something that you always longed for and when you go to your workplace they tell you "no friend you can not work (a robot) does everything better than you, looks for another job" emotionally hits or at least that's what I think.

No more greetings to both of you and have a great start to the week, God bless you

Another brilliant feedback @jjqf

Thank you for sharing your view on that particular topic with me. Appreciate it a lot.

We're clearly quite on the same page with judgement of current situation and future progress.

Yours, Piotr

Thanks to you @crypto.piotr, always recommend me very good and interesting articles, as we would say here thanks my pana (pana is a colloquial way of saying friend)

Thanks to @crypto.piotr for telling me about this post.

AI is simply put a very powerful tool- like fire or the wheel or the Uranium Atom. How man uses it is the big question?

Who will be replaced? Well, the way tech is progressing- more than half of the work force. But NOT Tomorrow or the Next month. Maybe 30-40 years down the line. Automation has already begun but the scope is pretty limited and 3-4 Billion people are a lot to replace.

The exponential increase in tech can end many problems and bottlenecks which throttle the progress of many regions of the world, so more production at less cost can sustain a UBI. How this pans out is anybody's guess.

For older people like me- I am already being outdated from my profession slowly but surely. Looking for new avenues after taking a hard look at reality is probably the only way to stay on top of this tech- wave.

Another brilliant feedback @sarez

Looking for new avenues after taking a hard look at reality is probably the only way to stay on top of this tech- wave

Thank you for sharing your view on that particular topic with me. Appreciate it a lot.

We're clearly quite on the same page with judgement of current situation and future progress.

Yours, Piotr