2017 NBA MVP Predictions

Despite my best efforts, I always find myself somewhat surprised by someone or something at the end of the year when it comes to the Most Valuable Player Award. Whether it's Russell Westbrook averaging a triple-double (alright, I wasn't so much surprised as I was in awe at the sheer feat he accomplished), or James Harden leading the league in assists as a "shooting" guard, there are going to be things that I can't predict. With that being said, let's jump into my "predictions" for how the 2017 NBA MVP race shakes up.

Honorable Mentions:

James Harden - SG - Houston Rockets

This is all about Chris Paul here. With CP3 in town, James Harden will relinquish much of his ball-handling responsibilities, which will lead to a reduction in assists and points. When a guy like Chris Paul joins your team, there are going to be fewer opportunities so I think Harden drops off from his epic season last year. I think the Rockets are a better team than last year, but Harden won't be shouldering as much of the load and therefore will fall much shorter for the MVP award than he did last year.

LeBron James - SF - Cleveland Cavaliers

As long as LeBron is in the league, he will have a shot at this award, and I wouldn't be surprised if he has his best season yet. The thing about LeBron though, is that we are used to it. He had one of his greatest statistical seasons ever last year, and yet barely cracked the top five in MVP voting. I do think that this is the year LeBron takes a step back as he cannot sustainably keep leading the league in minutes per game at his age. Cavs brass knows LeBron needs to be fresh if they stand any chance of competing with the Celtics and Warriors in the playoffs.

Rudy Gobert - C - Utah Jazz

Part of me wants Gobert to really take a step forward this year on both sides of the ball. Without Gordon Hayward in town to carry possessions on offense, it will be interesting to see how Utah can run the offense through Gobert. I still think he's a couple years off from competing for the award from an offensive standpoint, but he certainly could be a defensive MVP sooner rather than later.

The Top Four:

#4 - Kevin Durant - SF - Golden State Warriors

Coming off an MVP level NBA Finals performance has many believing that Kevin Durant's second year with the Warriors will prove more fruitful individually than the last. I for one am not a believer in Kevin Durant for MVP.

My pessimism is two-fold. First off, Kevin Durant has easily the best supporting cast around him. There are three other all-stars on the team plus a former finals MVP coming off the bench in Andre Iguodala. Sure the Warriors will again be one of the greatest offensive teams of all time, but it's going to be hard to win the Most Valuable Player award on a team that won 72 games without you.

Secondly, I think Steve Kerr is going to go full Popovich this year. I think Durant, Curry, Thompson, and Green will play fewer minutes than they have in years past. The Warriors have the luxury of being able to rest an all-star every night and still be one of the top teams in the league and coach Kerr knows it. The Warriors biggest obstacle on their path to another NBA championship is health, and reducing everyone's minutes will help to tilt the odds even more into the Warriors favor.

Kevin Durant certainly has the ability and potential to win the MVP award, I just don't think he really needs to for the Warriors to get what they want most; an NBA Championship.

#3 - Giannis Antetokounmpo - SF - Milwaukee Bucks

The Greek Freak quietly became the first player in NBA history to rank in the top twenty of the five major statistical categories. Assuming the man in Milwaukee can stay healthy, the sky is quite literally the limit for this kid at just 22-years of age.

Antetokounmpo has a legitimate shot of ranking in the top ten in points, rebounds, and assists per game this year while carrying a team that should contend for home-court in the first round in a weakened Eastern Conference. While I don't believe Giannis has the ability to average a triple-double like Westbrook did last year, I think Antetokounmpo has a shot at becoming one of the best two-way players in the Eastern Conference.

What sets Antetokounmpo apart from the rest in the top four is the fact that he is the man in Milwaukee. Take the Freak off of this Bucks team and they would be lucky to win 30 games this year. Antetokounmpo might actually be the most important player to any team out there, but I don't think he wins the award this year. If I had to pick who has the best chance of winning multiple MVP awards from now until 2025, I would take the Greek Freak above all.

#2 - Russell Westbrook - PG - Oklahoma City Thunder

The dude averaged a triple-double over an entire season for the first time since Oscar Robertson did so in '61-'62. Westbrook simply knows how to play the game with an endless motor. So what is stopping Westbrook from taking home the coveted back-to-back MVP awards? Two words; Paul George.

The Thunder somehow duped the Pacers into giving up Paul George for what basically amounts to some pocket lint and a few buttons, but more importantly is what PG-13 brings to the Thunder that they didn't have last year; someone else who could make a shot when it counted.

I believe that the Thunder will be a much better overall team than they were last year, but I think Westbrook takes a step back from his once-in-a-lifetime season. I think his numbers across the board drop and that basically takes him down just enough to where my top pick slides in and steals the MVP award.

#1 - Kawhi Leonard - SF - San Antonio Spurs

Part of me thinks I'm absolutely insane for every dreaming of a San Antonio Spur winning an MVP award with Gregg Popovich as the coach, but the other part of me believes that Pop needs an MVP performance this season from the Klaw in order to compete in the loaded Western Conference.

Kawhi Leonard is on a different level when it comes to playing defense. The other guys on this list can be a stopper in spurts, but nobody in the league outside of Rudy Gobert and Draymond Green takes such a liking to making every play on the defensive side of the ball. Kawhi's defense will play a pivotal role in his being crowned the MVP this season.

Kawhi's accomplishments won't end on the defensive side of the ball though. Leonard will once again have one of the most efficient offensive seasons in the league as his shooting continues to improve and his post-up game solidifies. He has all of the tools to be an elite level scorer, which is made most evident by the fact that he averaged over 25 points per game in a Spurs offense that hasn't had a 25 point per game scorer since Tim Duncan won the MVP. I think that Kawhi not only steps up and scores upwards of 27 to 28 points per game, but I believe his rebounding and assist numbers also rise as he takes on a more point-forward position on a team with no standout point guard.

Above all though, the reason I believe Kawhi takes the MVP award home this year is voter preference. The stat-head voters will look at Kawhi's per-48 splits and see that he is the most efficient of the players deserving of the award. Kawhi will average the fewest minutes of the guys on this list, but he will quietly have another MVP-caliber season and he will finally be rewarded for his effort on both sides of the ball.

It will be the lamest MVP speech and celebration ever. I'm taking the under on the 2.5 minute victory speech bet.

And with that, you have my choice for this year's NBA Most Valuable Player. Every guy listed has the potentially to win the award, and there are a few others who have legitimate arguments for being on the list. As I said at the top of the piece, I am often wrong and I wouldn't be surprised if I was wrong again here.

I hope you enjoyed this post. Sound off in the comments who your pick for 2017 NBA MVP is. If you liked this article, please follow @brandonp to get all of my posts directly to your feed!