July 4th, Summer & Baseball

Ah... July 4th! The great American holiday that marks the unofficial half-way point of summer. The smell of charcoal, smoked meats, fireworks, and more. What could be better??

Well, probably lots of things... but baseball is the focus for this post. It is also about midway through the baseball season, and a good time to take stock of the teams. Where are the profitable bets going to be? How did the experts do at predicting which teams would win their divisions? Lots to consider!

Why bet on baseball?

1. With 162 games per team, the opportunities are daily and abundant!
2. The money lines have many profitable options.
3. The "spreads" (aka Run Lines) offer additional betting options.
4. There are Over/Under Run Totals to consider.
5. It's the heart of summer... what else is there to bet on? (And, don't be a "smart-alec" and say the WNBA, endless soccer matches, or tennis, because those are not fun for me...)

It's All About the Math

So the experts are basically right - the Dodgers, Astros, Nationals, Yankees, Red Sox and Yankees are all good teams and well above .500. These are the teams that are going to the heavy favorites when bookies set the money lines. Then there are the not-very-good teams - Reds, Phillies, Padres, White Sox, Athletics- they get the honor of being the big underdogs. But here's the thing... in the world of baseball, teams like the Dodgers and Yankees will only win maybe 95-100 of the 162 games they play. So if the Dodgers have a great season and win 98 games, that is only a 60.49% of their games. And, conversely if the Padres win 68 of their games, that is 41.97% . Hmmm...

Where's the value?

For me, I like to bet as a contrarian. "When everyone is fearful, be greedy, and when everyone is greedy, be afraid." (Wise words from Warren Buffet - and betting and investing are very similar!) So teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Nationals, Red Sox, are the teams Joe Public gets "greedy" with. For instance, the when Kershaw pitches, the Dodgers are probably not going to be favorable money line, because the "greedy public" wants to bet on that game. However, a game like, Twins vs Blue Jays -which is no ESPN Sunday Night ratings gem - is the type of "afraid" bet that will likely offer the more desirable value bet . Right now the Twins are actually above .500 while the Blue Jays are typically ranked higher, but they have a losing record. So maybe the Twins have a underdog ML and there is a better than 50% probability they'll win the game. That's an example of the contrarian value bet I'd rather make.

Break-Even Winning Percentages

So, here's my plan... what if a team that the experts thought was going to be crappy can actually win over 40% of their games for the rest of the season? What if a good team can win by at least 2 runs in many of the games they play? What if you always bet against a certain team? I'm going to try and poke a few holes in the mythical world of baseball betting by picking some of these types of bets in addition to my overall picks. (It will give me something to do until Football starts!)