The numbers confirm Inter's system

frafiomatale (78)in #sports • 3 days ago

_{F. S. Church, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons}

The Bastoni–Kalulu case has probably been the biggest refereeing scandal in Italy over the past thirty years, but at the same time it had the merit of opening a Pandora’s box whose lid had been stubbornly glued shut for far too long.

Since that now infamous Valentine’s Day evening, Alessandro Bastoni, guilty of simulating a non-existent foul that caused the expulsion of his colleague—complete with a provocative celebration in the victim’s face—has become a target for fans in every stadium where he has played, from north to south, both in Italy and in Europe.

Football fans, usually accustomed to letting everything slide and even defending the indefensible as long as it is wrapped in the right colors, this time have loudly said “enough.”

The behavior of the Inter defender has been judged by almost everyone as too cowardly to be tolerated, and at the same time it has acted somewhat like the red pill in The Matrix, bringing many people back to a reality that can no longer be hidden: Inter, as a club—its management and its players—has for years enjoyed a privileged treatment unknown to all other teams, administratively, economically and sportingly.

The Bastoni case even managed the “miracle” of uniting fan bases that have always been hostile to one another, such as those of Napoli and the other two great northern clubs, Milan and Juventus. Apart from a few isolated groups who reason according to personal convenience, across the country the grotesque administration of Italian football—aimed at protecting and favoring a single club—is causing fans throughout the peninsula to cry scandal.

The lid has finally blown off, and the haste and agitation with which the loyal defenders of the “state team” move to deny facts, compare unrelated situations, dilute evidence or try to silence dissenting voices is making it increasingly clear that the illusion of the “white tuxedo” is definitively over.

A metaphorical punch in the face that has pushed many to investigate further, bringing to light undeniable data. This is the case of the well-known sports journalist Franco Ordine, who a few days ago revealed an interesting statistic: in the last five championships Inter has received only five red cards in total, three of them during injury time and one on the final matchday.

The question at this point is obvious: how have the other big clubs in our league fared? Here are the numbers: Napoli 11, Juventus 15, Roma 17, Milan 21, Lazio 26. In short, more than double compared to the Neapolitans and even quadruple compared to their city rivals in red and black.

A rather curious statistic—but it is not the only one. Analysts examined the situations of the 48 teams that participated in all of the last five seasons of the major European leagues (England, Spain, France, Italy and Germany), and an interesting pattern emerged: 47 of them average between four and six fouls before receiving a yellow card.

Then there is one outlier—once again Inter—completely outside the statistical norm with an average of more than eight fouls committed before receiving a booking. But would you like to hear something even more curious? Within European competitions that number drops to 4.9—perfectly within the statistical range. Incredible… or perhaps not.

If Agatha Christie were here, she would remind us that two coincidences are a clue, but a third is needed for proof. And here it is: the balance of VAR interventions, both for and against, over the last four seasons again places Inter at the top with a +12. This time, however, they are closely followed by Napoli and Roma with +11.

_{Fake book cover, original image by Bill Nicholls / Winterbrook House}

But the most significant figure concerns the teams most penalized by the electronic eye: Milan, with a balance of -8, and Juventus, with an astonishing -16. Statistical data that seem to certify how the use of VAR does not contain a random component at all, but rather a very precise direction—or at least a clear tendency.

In short, evidently for some the order is to dissect everything, searching for the slightest detail, while for others the same technology is applied with diametrically opposite purposes. Cheap conspiracy theories? Barroom chatter worthy of the worst part of football fandom? Well, dear friends, judging by what two renowned sports journalists—Italo Cucci and Ivan Zazzaroni (both many things, but certainly not Juventus sympathizers)—have stated in recent times, perhaps not.

Both have claimed that the then president of the FIGC, Carlo Tavecchio, personally confided to them that VAR was introduced in Italy solely with the purpose of stopping the dominance of Juventus, which at the time (it was 2017) had just won seven consecutive league titles. Juventus, which—coincidentally—has for years been the team most penalized by technological review.

And not only in Italy, but across Europe.

In the past, far less was enough to see heads roll, teams penalized with points deductions, titles revoked, relegations imposed, entire championships overturned and many following seasons influenced. Yet today, faced with the mud that seems to emerge from every corner, everyone pretends not to see.

After all, the underworld is happy this way—and everyone has a family to support.