The statistics of fraud

In the web I found a couple of interesting articles written by Samuel Manigoldo, an expert in numbers and statistics. The editor of the newspaper "Quotidiano Bianconero" took the trouble to analyze the statistics of the last five Serie A seasons, comparing the relationship that the various teams in our league have had with items such as yellow cards, red cards, penalties for and against, disallowed goals and VAR interventions.

What emerged is an embarrassing picture, with some clubs favored and others heavily penalized with numbers clearly outside statistical norms, something that confirms how the suspicions of a gigantic sporting fraud that has been ongoing for several years in Italian football are supported by data and almost certain evidence.

I am sharing an excerpt from one of these pieces, obviously indicating the original source, which I invite you to consult for further details.

Without card, without penalty

Author: Samuel Manigoldo. LINK to the original article.

Twenty-nine minutes. It is the gap — measured in minutes of play — between the moment an Inter defender receives the first yellow card (68th minute, average 2023–2026) and the moment the same happens to a Juventus or Milan defender (42nd minute). Twenty-nine minutes in which the Nerazzurri players can commit systematic tactical fouls without the psychological weight of the card, without the risk of being sent off, without the regulatory consequences provided by the disciplinary code.

This figure is the core of an audit conducted on the 2023–2026 seasons, which cross-checks the match reports of Inzaghi’s Inter with those of Lazio under the same coach, and compares them with the main European clubs. What emerges is not an opinion: it is a sequence of numbers that contradict the dominant narrative.

The most widespread thesis to explain the anomalous number of missed expulsions for Inter is that of preventive substitution: Inzaghi would be quicker than others in removing at-risk players. It is an elegant explanation. It is also wrong.

For it to be valid, it should produce a precise piece of evidence: yellow cards in the first half, followed by substitutions. The data says the opposite.

Inter (2023–2026): first yellow card for defenders and midfielders in the 68th minute on average.

Juventus and Milan: first yellow card in the 42nd minute on average.

The gap is 26 minutes. This means that for almost half the match Inter plays in a state of total immunity: their players can commit three or four tactical fouls without the referee showing a card. When the first yellow arrives — at the 68th — the player has already completed his task. The substitution that comes at the 75th or 80th minute is not preventive. It is simply an athletic rotation.

The substitution prevents nothing. The damage — or rather: the advantage — has already been done in the previous sixty-eight minutes.

The second defensive line of the narrative system claims that Inter gets many penalties because they attack more, and concedes few because they defend far from their own box. The audit built a specific indicator to measure this: the Area Touches / Penalties Won Ratio (T/P). The lower the value, the more frequently penalties are obtained relative to actual offensive presence.

Inter gets a penalty every 1.7 dangerous entries into the box. Manchester City — which produces almost twice as many touches in the area (38.5 vs 24.2) — gets one every 4.2. Juventus, with an offensive presence similar to Inter (22.8 touches), gets one every 5.7. Inter’s sensitivity to the whistle in the opponent’s box is triple that of top European clubs and Juventus.

On the defensive side, the anomaly is mirrored. Inter concedes an average of 10.5 shots per match — almost identical to Juventus (10.2) and Milan (11.1) — and performs the same number of defensive actions in the box as its rivals. And yet: Inter: one penalty against every 180 fouls committed in the box. Juventus: one penalty against every 55 fouls committed in the box. With the same number of dangerous defensive actions, Inter concedes a penalty with a frequency three times lower than Juventus.

The audit data converges on three points that support each other. First: Inter’s defense is not elite for individual technique. It is elite for tactical impunity. Players can foul without being booked at a frequency — one yellow every 8.2 fouls, versus one every 5.1 for Juventus and Milan — that has no parallel in the European football analyzed. Second: offensive production does not justify the penalties. Inter produces as much as Milan and less than Manchester City, but receives favorable whistles with an intensity three times higher than top European clubs and Juventus. Third: preventive substitution does not exist. It is a late substitution, on a yellow card arriving 30 minutes later than the national and European average. In three seasons, zero cases of disciplinary substitutions in the first half.

The probabilistic model applied to the data quantifies the overall impact: without the delay in yellow cards and without the anomaly in the awarding of penalties, Inter would have at least 12–15 fewer points in the standings, placing them among the chasing group rather than alone at the top.

Inter is not better at managing cards. It is simply less sanctioned. The 30-minute gap on the average first yellow card is the exact measure of an advantage that the numbers record with millimetric precision.

Without card, without penalty

Author: Samuel Manigoldo. LINK to the original article.

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