I don't think it has much to do with the price of SBDs

Yes, it seems that other factors play a major role here. Obviously, it's a combination of everything we've discussed here. If Hive has an active sale of tokens, in particular through DAO, then Steem, on the contrary, has #burnsteem25 and clubs, plus DAO has been blocked for a long time. Perhaps there are other factors that are difficult to notice at first glance.