Steem could easily rise 10X today's price within a few months - It should perform better than bitcoin. Steem price compared to bitcoin and future price.
The price of steem has been in the doldrums for a long time. Frustrated investors have watched the price of steem do nothing while the bitcoin price has climbed and climbed. Here is a long term chart of the price of steem in bitcoin.
You can see that on the long-term view, steem's price is currently very low compared to bitcoin:
Let's look at the long-term chart another way. Here it is in Candlestick form:
Look at the green candle on the far right-hand-side of the chart. It shows the price is starting to edge upwards.
Let's home-in on the last 3 months to see how that rise looks closer up:
In the above chart you can clearly see that the price of Steem has broken out of its long term downwards trend. (Don't forget - this is the porice of steem in bitcoin terms, not USD. It is also rising in USD terms.
Homing in a bit more, you can see the price in Satoshis has risen over the the last few days from around 11'000 satoshis to around 22'000 satoshis. Steem has literally doubled in price compared to bitcoin in about a week. You can see this below:
What is causing the rise in the price of steem?
(1) The number of active daily users of steemit is rising. Here is the latest chart of active daily users provided by @penguinpablo:
(2) The bitcoin and Ethereum net works are completely clogged up. I am still waiting for a bitcoin transfer of more than 24 hours ago to go through. According to blockchain.info the standard fee for a transaction in 60 minutes to 24 hours is over $50 and for a priority transaction (less than 60 minutes), the fee is over $60. People who want fast transactions and free of charge transactions are looking at steem. In other words, if you hold bitcoin on an exchange and you want to move them somewhere else, it's better to change the bitcoin into steem and move the steem.
Take a look at these statistics from https://www.blocktivity.info/
Do you notice the little yellow triangle- warning next to ethereum and bitcoin?
The warning sign means the network is clogged. Here is what you see if you click on the little "i" next to the warning for ethereum or bitcoin:
See how clogged those networks are. It takes forever to do a transaction.
On the other hand, the steem network isn't even close to 1% of capacity. Look at the number for steem below:
Simply put, steem is seeing more transactions than any other network and isn't even close to 1% of its capacity. (see below):
In my opinion, the best predictive indicator you can have of a crypto-currency's future value is how much it is currently being used. Steem is currently the most used. (Should I say "thank you" to all the spammers on steemit?)
Simply put, people are moving into steem because they can quickly and instantly move steem at no cost.
Here is a transaction I did to transferring 1000 steem. It cost me only 1 cent, and it was instantaneous:
Compare that to the cost of sending bitcoin as below:
You saw it right? $65 to send bitcoin, or only 1 cent to send steem. Bitcoin takes hours and steem is instantaneous. People want to own steem for the speed and low-cost of transactions.
In terms of volume, steem is still not a very important currency. It is 34th in terms of market cap and 57th in terms of daily volume. Below you can see the places where steem trades:
What about wealthy investors?
There is no denying that wealthy investors want to own digital assets. I have many friends who manage wealth for all kinds of investors from pension funds, to family offices to millionaires to companies. they are getting regular calls about bitcoin. Today, it's only about bitcoin. It's the only thing everyone wants to own. Of course the bankers are pushing back. They are saying "We don't really recommend bitcoin, but if you really want it, there's an ETF...."
Today it's all about bitcoin
Bitcoin has gone bonkers and everybody wants to own it at any price. They don't care that there banker tells them it's a scam, or a fraud or a bubble. They just want it. Bitcoin is the first digital asset anyone wants to own.
Tomorrow it will be about portfolios of digital assets
The value of bitcoin is that it is the King-daddy of crypto. It has the brand-name recognition, like Starbucks, McDonalds, or Apple. People simply don't care whether it is the best, cheapest or fastest. they just want to own bitcoin at any price. It is the mother-load of the crypto-world.
The mantra of every investment manager is that you should diversify. Wealthy people know that.
Having got their bitcoin, they are going to want to know what other digital assets they can own to diversify their portfolio. They probably want to have several crypto-currencies with different features and use-cases.
Steem is an obvious choice as a diversifier.
Steem has one of the strongest "use-cases" of all the alt-coins. You can argue that - saying that maybe ethereum or some others have a strong use case. However steem is the most obvious to me.
Steem is a "vanity" asset
Why do women wear makeup? Why do men polish their shoes? Why do you want to be the manager? Why do I want want more steem-power?
It's all about vanity. These things give us more power, more influence, more respect. It's like wearing a gold watch or a large diamond. Owning lots of steem-power gives you respect, influence and power. People just want it. Go to any minnow and offer to delegate your steem-power to him. He's going to take it! If your friend lends you his Lamborghini to go on a date, you're going to take it. So it is with steem. People want to own it, wear it, display it.
In the above respects, steem has a strong utility value. There is a clear reason why people want to own it, to use it. They want to be the king-of-the castle. The more you have, the better you feel. It is a desired asset and it is going to be more desired in the future when wealthy people start to diversify.
Hard-Fork - steem owners to get free coins?
I am not sure how probable this is, but I link below a post by @taskmaster4450
https://steemit.com/steem/@taskmaster4450/holy-s-t-steem-hardfork-at-block-18-500-that-is-two-weeks
The blog suggests that a porn site called vice.com may use a copy of the steem blockchain, and we will all get free porn-tokens or vice-tokens. I'm not sure if it is plausible - as I have not read the vice.com paper, - but that's the opinion of @taskmaster4450. Make your own judgement.
Here is an extract of what he wrote:
There you have it. This looks like the Steem blockchain is being forked and we will have Steem and the Vice blockchains. For the trouble, steemians are going to get 400,000,000 Vice tokens (I am guessing it is a 1 for 1 token "dividend").
All characteristic of the Steem blockchain are mentioned in the Vice white paper. Quite frankly, I cant figure out another way to have that happen other than a fork.
Steem price forecast
Anything is possible in the crypto world. We have watched the price of bitcoin climb from less than $1 to nearly $20'000.
When making a prediction you can say a direction, a time-line or a price, but never more than one. I will stick with the direction and leave the time-line and price to you.
I have a bullish forecast. I think the price will go up. I think it will go up alot. I think it will rise faster than bitcoin did.
I think we are at the earliest stage of that rise. It's the first few days of a multi-year ascent. You can work out where the price would be if it became 10%, 20% or 30% of a typical digital assets portfolio. Let's just say, there is a long way to go. We are at the start of the journey.
Example of a diversified digital currency portfolio:
Up-to-the minute price
As this was a long post, you may worry the price moved the wromng way while I was writing it. The price didn't move. It's still at around 24'000 Satoshi. Here is the photo of the bittrex website:
Disclaimer
The above article is for fun and should not be construed as investment advice. It is debatable whether crypto-assets like bitcoin or steem have any value. One thing is certain. Digital assets are very volatile and you can make or lose a substantial percentage in a short space of time. Don't invest the money you need for Christmas, or your children's education. You may lose it all. Don't invest if your spouse will divorce you and your children will hate you if it goes to nothing. Tell nobody, so they can't laugh at you and say "I told you so" if it goes wrong.
Be truly alone on this journey.
incredibly important blog post. 100% upvoted and resteemed in the hope that people read the information you have obviously put in work to fine and put down. thank you for that. the price of bitcoin miner fees right now is nuts.
@teamhumble Thank's for the re-steem. Much appreciated. I hope you like my reward for that!
I looked at your blogs. You are definitely worth following. I hope others who read this will think the same.
I think one thing which is driving people to diversify is the nutty bitcoin transfer fees. We all believe this will soon be fixed with new software, but don't know when. So in the meantime people are diversifying to make sure some of their digital assets can be transferred fast. Steem is the fastest and cheapest with no scaling problem.
The difference between Bitcoin and Steem: Steem is working #WAITCOIN
https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@rockwellontherun/from-the-makers-of-bitcoin-waitcoin
Great post! While I'm very much an optimist and I firmly believe in this platform, there are a couple factors that need to be at least considered before throwing out huge numbers.
First is obviously what's happening as we speak. As great as Steemit is, it is still part of an ecosystem that is in it's infancy stages. Many factors besides its performance can and will dictate it's price. Wars, hacks, developer disagreements, regulation, etc....can and will play a large role in how this token performs. If the rest of the markets are taking a beating, Steem will as well. There's just no way around it. The price of Steem isn't going to $4000 unless many other currencies in this space are going there with it. If and when this market matures into a more fundamentally driven arena then I feel very good that Steem will do very well. But until then, it's still vulnerable to the whims of the overall market.
Second, unless I'm mistaken, Steem is an inflationary token. In other words, there is no hard cap on how many of these things will be created. Of itself, that is not a huge issue as long as the platform continues to grow. But, in time, and even now to a certain extent, it will be looked upon as somewhat of a negative. The percentages aren't huge and they are openly disclosed to everyone but...one of the appeals of Bitcoin, Litecoin, Dash, and others (not Ethereum) is that no more will ever exist. What's there is there. End of story. Again, regardless of how much it actually impacts the overall value of the currency, it is still seen as somewhat of a negative.
Third, while I really like your second point above, Steem needs to be on a lot more exchanges for that to really become a true use-case. While its great for Bittrex and Polo users, the vast majority of the crypto markets can't use it. Again, huge potential for down the road but the platform needs to grow first in order to get it on GDAX and Bitfinex and BitThumb and Binance, etc...
I'm certainly not trying to rain on the parade here but irrational exuberance is why we have events like today. So, while passion and energetic optimism are welcomed and even somewhat necessary for young, growing "companies" (for lack of a better word) to grow and succeed, they need to be tempered with an honest assessment of the risk. This is still an "experiment" and while I agree with you on its potential and, in my opinion, likely success, it's trading at $3 for a reason. It's not worth any more than that......yet. :-)
Seriously, nice work on the above. I enjoyed reading it. I've upvoted and followed you and I look forward to more of your work. Not a big resteemer yet until I get a little more grounded on how this all works but...there you have it. Steem On!!!
@dahher212 Your’s is the best reply of all the below comments, because you present well reasoned arguments which can get an interesting debate going. So much better than the replies saying “steem’s going to the stars”.
Steem vulnerable to the whims of the market
Agreed. Its like the stock market. Everything rises or falls together. On a bad day, like today, virtually every crypto currency is down 20% to 30%. There’s no escaping it. The volatility is much higher than with more mature asset classes.
Steem rate of inflation and hard-cap
This needs to be looked into a bit more. My understanding was that steem has an inflation of 9% a year, falling by 0.5% each year. If that's correct, it should result in a hard cap as well, like bitcoin. However I am far from convinced that the rules are written in stone. A little work is needed to know the exact facts.
Steem is not on enough exchanges
This is dissappointing. There is also bitshares to add to the list of exchanges where you can trade steem. I think steem’s value is depressed because it is inaccessible to many traders and investors who don’t find it on Kraken, Bitstamp, Gdax, and so on. Adding a coin to a big exchange is usually beneficial to its price. I’m hoping that down the line there will be more places where it can be traded.
Irrational exuberance in crypto
There’s no denying the “exuberance”. Future history will tell us whether it was “irrational” or “justified”. You can find plenty of people who are on one side or the other, and some who are just sitting on the fence. One thing which is a fact in these kinds of “speculative” or “developing” markets, is that sentiments can swing quickly for the smallest of reasons. I think the over-loading of the bitcoin transaction network over the last week was one factor that turned sentiment against bitcoin. That gave us a near 40% fall in bitcoin’s price. If the problem passes, bitcoin’s price will go on the ascent quickly. People’s memories are very short when it comes to investing. One week you think it’s the greatest company or best theme in the world, and a month later you are telling yourself that you must have been crazy. You don’t know why you bought and the smallest problem seems to predict a perptually lower price. Sentiment is infectious. People act like lemmings. They throw themselves off the cliff, then the tide turns, when it’s too late.
Resteeming
You earn nothing for a resteem, except gratitude from the blogger. If you resteem, it appears in your feed so that anyone who follows you will see it. However, you should only resteem things you want your followers to read, because you think they would be interested.
If you resteem all the time, it will annoy people, and they may stop following you. On the other hand if you only resteem top-quality stuff, people may follow you so they don’t miss anything. I think resteeming about 1 article for each 5 you write would be acceptable.
I am giving you a 100% upvote to push your comments to the top of this blog!
Wow! Thank you for the vote. I and my steem account appreciate it greatly. :-)
"Irrational" exuberance vs "justified" aren't mutually exclusive. They both can happen when something is doing well. The irrational part is forgetting that they can go down just as easily or that they're not going to stop until they reach some ridiculous number. One of my blogs talks about how bull markets climb a "wall of worry". It means that you need people tempering the exuberance for the market to keep climbing. As soon as those people finally throw in the towel and jump in on the long side, that's when you need to get out. It's the same thing on the downside. I can't tell you how many times I've said, "Hold, hold, ride it out." And then it keeps going down until finally I say, "Eff this! I've got to save something!" and sell. Only to have that be the bottom and things shoot back up. It's human nature. That's why it's best to decide what you're going to do before it happens and just shut if off for a couple days to settle itself out.
As for the inflation.....I'm pretty sure I read that once it gets down to 0.5% a year it will stay there in perpetuity. Not 100% on that but....half of a percent of 500M is 2.5M a year. Again, while not a huge number, when you consider that its >10% of bitcoin, it is significant. Growth on the platform can easily outpace that but, it does mean the platform has to grow. It can't stagnate or value goes down.
That all said, it is still sooooooo early in the game. The sky truly is the limit. As someone else pointed out, the addition of the SMTs and the other media aspects (dtube etc...) available here offer huge growth potential and a one-stop shopping experience that can't be matched by anything else out there right now. The key will really be to penetrate other markets (Japan, Korea, Europe) and getting the crypto listed over there would be a huge step in making that happen. Truthfully, I'm only here because someone told me to buy Steem as an investment. I don't do FB or twitter or anything like that. This is my first social media platform and, like I said, I would never have come here without first learning about the currency. Japan and Korea would explode on Steemit if they had the currency staring them in the face every day. Especially as it rises....
Thanks again for the upvote. More than the money, I really appreciate the boost to rep. I'll 100% your comment too, though I think I'm down in the 60% range for power. Until getting into a debate about votes yesterday I've just been throwing them around wherever I see fit.☺
Oh, by the way, it's @dagger212 and not @dahher212. I wouldn't have said anything but you linked it so....
This post is very well done, @swissclive.
Okay, now, that is a good line! :D
A question: which broker do you use to watch Japanese candlestick chart --steem/btc ?
P.S. resteemed
@miti Thanks for the re-steem! I reward you double for that!
For the candle chart I use Coinigy. I think it is free for up to a month, but I have chosen to pay for it as it has the price feeds from all the exchanges and you can compare in case one price is not right. I think it is helping me make better decisions.
Thanks @swissclive ;-)
I just got on Coinigy... what an amazing Platform! So complete! I'm trying it for free (you right - 30 day trial for free) because it looks like what i'm looking for, but i think i will pay for it too! $15/month is a reasonable cost!
Thanks for the advice ;-)
Greetings friend, this information is quite complete on the steem, unquestionably this coin has had a lot of movement these days, promises good profits for the one who is saving on it, I have used bittrex as exchange and it is super fast and as you describe it very minimal The commission for transfers, is one of the best exchange. Thank you friend for sharing good content, that help us advance in knowledge about cryptocurrencies. Regard..!
Thank you my friend, @karlin. All crypto currencies are down 20% to 40% today. This shows how quickly sentiment can change in this area. I think it will tske until the new year to settle down.
if I noticed that btc and others have come down a lot today, but do not worry, they will go back up. :)
Thanks for this well thought out post. I was especially intrigued by the graph showing how many active users on steemit (I just joined a little over a week ago and I feel lucky to get in at a good time!).
Before joining I had no clue about the transaction fees for bitcoin or lack thereof on steem. That is a game changer! Steem is inherently better and More capable (as you state). But I do see the hype and king daddy status of Bitcoin attracting so many to the cryptoworld who don't really understand.
I can't wait til SBD and Steem are listed on cex.io (or another) so I don't have to trade through Bitcoin. That's annoying and costly as you mention! I'm excited to be a part of this!! And of course I'm telling all my other writer/artist/homesteading friends like me to join! Thanks for the analysis! Following for More and resteemed! :)
@mountainjewel I appreciate the resteem. I hope you like the reward for that! It's fair to say steemit is in its infancy with only 50'000 active users compared to the billions that Facebook has. (they claim 2.07 billion monthly active users and 1.378 billion daily active users).
I am glad you mentioned cex.io. I was not aware of this exchange. I have a good feeling aboiut it and will check further.
For steem and sbd, you may want to check out bitshares.
Thanks for the tip on bitshares and the huge upvote! That's bigger than most of my posts! Lol Crazy statistics re:Facebook and steemit. I'm really trying to help my friends understand they can post and write over here and make money, but old habits die hard. Thanks again and have a good solstice (wherever you are!). I'll be following for more insights ;)
Also, this is the initiative re: cex.io and steem :)
I will definitely petition cex.io to list steem.
This is a very useful article for me as a Steem and crypto newbie. I had no idea just how much this platform can do until I had been on it for the last two weeks and I feel like I might have got on here just at the right time. I'm resteeming it to cheer others up like it has me.
Thanks very much for the resteem! You are definitely an early bird. Next year, all of Facebook’s 10 billion unique visitors might move here.
It's a pleasure. Well, Steemit has certainly squashed my Facebook habit pretty well.
Hahaha. Yes! I actively USE steemit to control my facebook habit. I have an esteem app on the first app page of my phone and facebook is relegated to the second app page :-D
I paused my reading at the Lamborghini part. I won't take it. From my positiin where I can afford a car of around 3000$, driving a Lamborghini would be a greater responsability than I can manage.
@mejustandrew. So sorry that you are frightened of driving a Lambo, (me too actually!). I gave you an extra big reward to help you on your way to a better car!
Thank you so much for your support, this vote will be worth even more after the value of Steem will rise, as I see it already crossed over 4$. You seem to gain pretty much success too, congratulations! Also I can see your upvotes started to worth much more since you keep powering up
Well-explained. I would stand more on the active users numbers and not the investment aspect.
50k daily is tiny compared to any well-known social media. Make this 50m daily users and you can derive some very interesting numbers! ;)
Millionaires soon? Let's see!
@nikossa1908 You make a good point. Today steemit has 50k daily users. If it gets to 50 million, (which is a small number compared to FB), that would 1000 times as much as today. The steem price should follow.
That would put steem at $4000 compared to today's $4.
Actually that's how I used to estimate this but it's not very accurate.
A big part of that $4 derives from the hope that it will become successful one day, a community with 50k active users can't be worth 1B... And if we get to 50m users, part of this hope will pay off.
Therefore I would say something like 250x, then our STEEM will be worth "only" $1000. Keep stacking them!
How much is Facebook worth with its 2 billion monthly users?
@swissclive ~500B... or $250 per user. For 50m steemers that would be 12.5B, or 12.5x the current market cap. This means $50 per STEEM.
Adding the "potential" markup... maybe $250?
I guess we were both very optimistic in our estimates :-)
I agree with your maths. The $4000 was a bit tongue in cheek. In my post of a few days ago I estimated $100 to $200. That was based on steem achieving a certain percentage of a typical diversified digital assets portfolio.
As far as the FB comparison goes, there are 2 factors which affect your $50 + $200 markup calculation.
At 50m users the future growth expectation is higher than FB’s 2bln growth expectation. That justifies high markup.
FB has heavy costs due to its infrastructure. Steemit’s lower cost justify a higher price per user.
In conclusion $50 per steem looks like the baseline, and there will still be plenty of potential.
Hi again. I hope you did well in your trades. I'm sorry I forgot to mention Komodo which made killer gains. I recommended it to a friend some hours ago and he still could have made a bunch on it.
Anyways I think there will be great demand for privacy coins too. STEEM is perfectly transparent. With clever analyzing a person could figure out even your period cycle if you start using STEEM as a currency. We need fungibility to our lives.
My favorites are:
Dash for trust-less mixing with perfect unbroken privacy to date with AirShows, Television shows, upcoming documentaries and a whole bunch of things with its massive self funded budget.
PIVX: A Dash ripoff with Zerocion protocol (A trusted setup)
Verge: 5 second Tx and McAfee recommends this coin. It's a Good community too.
Honorable mentions: Zcash (snowden recommends), ZenCash (Dash is too strong of an opponent) Komodo (decentralized ICOs and Atomic Swaps. The only platform capable of this + DEX + recycles Bitcoin's Hashpower)
A great list of alternative coins that we should consider in our diversified digital portfolio.
As you say, steem is transparent, so it is not for those seeking maximum secrecy.
I was having talks with some people about a free but invite only community for investments. People tend to use all the public info and then go on to bash the contributors in very disgusting ways. I've been defending some great people(especially @haejin) who have helped me do better as a noob investor for the last 3 days and I've seen my greatest fears about the community come to life. I wasn't even slightly surprised but certainly disappointed.
Let's see how things would turn out. This is a great time to BTFD. Unfortunately I'm out of USD. It'll take a few days for things to get profitable again.
Did you hear about Smart Cash? It is also privacy coin, Zcash fork. Look on them, reward for 1k+ hold, and cost low atm.
I took a brief look about a month ago. It seemed like it was good project. I haven't done enough research on it. At the time it gave me the vibes of ZENcash which had some great percentage gains. I don't think it'll be as massive as Dash. But if you feel good about the project, go for it. It certainly has a lot of upside. Since we had a major dip in the market you can double your money with practically Zero risk. I prefer PIVX. But Smartcash can have a lot of growth too.
That was a nice read and you have some good points.
In your price speculations, you didn't mention Smart Media Tokens(SMT) which are just around the corner! If you take those into consideration, I believe that the potentials are much much bigger!
SMTs are what makes me super positive for steem's future and when it goes live & mainstream we will see moon coming😉😎
@kouloumos. Thanks! I read something about SMT but lost the link. Can you tell us more?
Of course! When you read more about it you will get even more excited than you are now!
First of all, go check out https://smt.steem.io/
There you will find a brief introduction and you can download the whitepaper.
In the whitepaper you will find all the details along with a lot of technical stuff. If you are not into technical details you can easily find articles in steemit of people explaining in detail how SMTs will work without bothering yourself with extra information.
Here is the announcement from @ned
Very briefly, SMTs will enable publishers to create tokens that help monetize content and grow their communities. Everybody will be able to create tokens(based on steem) and they will be able to create ICO directly on STEEM blockchain. SMTs will give the opportunity to all kinds websites to integrate a steem-like system directly in their site.
For example people that are currently reading CNN news will be able to interact in CNN's website exactly like we are interacting right now on steemit!(if CNN creates a CNN token)
It's a gamechanger and you should definitely check it out!
If you want I can give you links to some really good posts that other steemians wrote explaining in detail how things will work and the opportunities that will arise.
So @swissclive what do you think?
Where is the excitement steemians?(!)
I will look into the SMT story. Thanks for the links. If CNN creates a token, will there be any direct benefit to the holder of a steem token?