A Chinese Visionary's Predictions for the World After 2025
Global Major Event Predictions for 2025-2026
Written on February 1, 2025, 01:42
- Geopolitics: Great Power Struggles and Regional Conflicts
1.1 Deepening Sino-Russian Alliance and Reshaping the Eurasian Geopolitical Landscape
Currently, the Sino-Russian relationship has entered the "unlimited cooperation" stage, though a military alliance is still constrained by the differences in both countries’ strategic objectives. If the U.S. and Europe continue to intensify their hostile stance towards China and Russia, the two countries may accelerate a substantial alliance through energy and military integration by 2025. For example, the share of reciprocal energy exports between China and Russia could rise to an unprecedented 75-80%, joint military exercises could become regular, and military and energy cooperation in the Arctic Circle could be institutionalized. Additionally, China and Russia may include countries like North Korea, Cambodia, and even Iran into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), creating a broad land power alliance framework. This could provoke a strong reaction from Europe and the U.S., escalating the confrontation between major power blocs.
1.2 Dramatic Changes in East Asian Security Dynamics
In 2025, Sino-American relations are expected to enter a phase of full confrontation. The U.S. will continue its anti-China strategy, especially in the areas of semiconductors and artificial intelligence, which will lead to full-scale competition. Meanwhile, China will accelerate its self-innovation strategy and achieve technological independence in key sectors. Military confrontations in hotspots such as the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait may intensify. If Taiwan continues to push the "Taiwan independence" agenda in 2025, China may respond with harsher measures. The U.S. will reduce its presence to the second island chain but simultaneously provide greater military freedom to traditional Asia-Pacific allies such as Japan and South Korea, relaxing restrictions on arms sales, including so-called "defensive strategic weapons" like tactical nuclear weapons and medium-range ballistic missiles. This could push Sino-American military tensions to historic levels. Japan might take the opportunity to further breach the limits of its pacifist constitution, accelerating military normalization, possibly even abolishing Article 9 of the pacifist constitution, and significantly increasing its defense budget. Japan could also play a logistics support role in the Taiwan Strait conflict or might directly participate in it. South Korea will face a difficult choice between its dependency on the U.S. military and its need for economic cooperation with China, which may lead to greater diplomatic instability and division. If Sino-American relations continue to deteriorate, East Asia could split into two opposing military blocs, extending the confrontation to the economic sphere and causing a complete fragmentation of regional supply chains.
1.3 European Nuclear Crisis
The Russia-Ukraine war will enter a new phase in 2025. The Zelensky regime in Ukraine may adopt more aggressive tactics, possibly even attempting to retrieve old Soviet-era nuclear warheads given up in 1991 and combine them with missile systems supplied by the EU to threaten Russia's territory. This could lead Russia to see this as "nuclear extortion," prompting extreme retaliatory measures, potentially sparking a "Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0." This would radically change the nature of the Russia-Ukraine war. Meanwhile, Germany will continue to absorb European military forces, integrating countries like Poland, Finland, and Sweden into a "European Union Army," and could deploy more troops west of the "Curzon Line" to confront Russia, escalating Russia's security anxieties. This could lead to direct military intervention, with the "European Union Army" potentially sending ground troops into Ukraine. In such a scenario, Russia could use all of its military capabilities, including tactical nuclear weapons, to launch a full-scale attack on Western Europe, resulting in a major confrontation in Europe.
1.4 Israel-Iran Conflict and the Sixth Middle East War
In 2025, the U.S. will continue its "containment" strategy towards Iran, increasing sanctions and encouraging Israel to launch direct military strikes on Iran. Israel may attack key Iranian military sites, including the Natanz nuclear facility. If successful and causing significant damage, this could provoke Iran to formally declare war on Israel. In retaliation, Iran might block the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthis could block the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, leading to disruptions in global oil transportation and causing chaos in the energy markets. This could trigger a local war between the U.S. and Iran, drawing countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia into the conflict. Turkey may play a mediator role, trying to gain geopolitical benefits, but if mediation fails, Turkey may be forced to pick sides or even enter the war, expanding its military presence in Syria and Lebanon and possibly confronting Russia and Iran in the Caucasus, leading to a full-scale Middle East war.
1.5 Collapse of the British Monarchy and Civil War
The British economy will collapse completely in 2025, making the continued financial support for the monarchy seem excessive. Extreme nationalists and republican supporters within the Conservative Party will stage a coup to abolish the monarchy and expel the royal family. Meanwhile, the Scottish National Party will push for a second independence referendum, and if the referendum supports independence, Scotland will announce its departure from the UK. The British government will take harsh measures, eventually leading to a bloody civil war across the three islands. Northern Ireland may follow Scotland's example and hold an independence referendum, possibly even launching a second armed independence movement. A new, more radical "New Irish Republican Army" (NIRA) will emerge, targeting British government and military installations in Northern Ireland. Even Wales could see armed rebellion seeking independence from the UK, leading to the disintegration of the United Kingdom and resulting in massive casualties and destruction across the three islands.
- Economics and Finance: The Collapse and Reconstruction of the Global System
2.1 U.S. Debt Collapse and Global Interest Rate Out of Control
The risk of U.S. debt collapse, driven by financial oligarchs like George Soros shorting U.S. Treasury bonds, will be a critical issue. Soros may exploit loopholes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle, launching a massive short-sell campaign against U.S. debt. If successful, this will cause a panic in the bond market, sending U.S. bond yields soaring and draining global interest rates. This will lead to soaring financing costs for the U.S. government and corporations, triggering defaults in U.S. debt. U.S. stocks and global markets will experience massive sell-offs, and the dollar will sharply depreciate. Central banks will panic and dump U.S. bonds, causing unprecedented volatility in global financial markets and triggering a financial tsunami.
2.2 Bank Failures and Global Currency Crisis
Following the collapse of U.S. debt, global dollar liquidity will dry up, leading to a currency liquidity crunch. Banks holding large amounts of U.S. debt will see significant devaluation of their assets, causing capital adequacy ratios to fall below regulatory thresholds. This will trigger a global bank panic, initially affecting smaller banks, and later systemic banks like Deutsche Bank or HSBC, leading to a chain reaction of bank failures. Major currencies tied to the dollar system, including the euro, pound, yen, and won, will collapse, leading to severe inflation. Countries dependent on dollar financing, such as Argentina and India, will face debt crises, leading to defaults on emerging market debts. The WTO trade system will collapse, and the global financial order will be thrown into chaos.
2.3 Global Energy and Food Crisis, and Afghan Refugee Crisis
OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar will lose trust in traditional payment channels and announce that all LNG contracts will be paid in gold or CBDCs. Meanwhile, rising geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Black Sea and Persian Gulf, will cause international oil prices to skyrocket, triggering a global energy crisis. Many countries will face industrial shutdowns and economic recessions. Countries heavily reliant on energy imports from the Gulf and Russia may implement strict energy rationing, intensifying social unrest and political instability. Simultaneously, extreme weather and geopolitical conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Iran wars, will cause global food prices to soar, leading to widespread famine and refugee crises, particularly in developing countries. Afghanistan will face the largest refugee crisis of the century due to famine, with millions fleeing to neighboring regions, including Central Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, further straining these regions' economies and exacerbating the global humanitarian disaster.
2.4 Emergence of the New Gold Standard, Blockchain Currencies, and CBDCs
In the aftermath of the financial crisis, countries will push for a more decentralized international monetary system, reducing reliance on a single currency. Regional monetary groups will emerge, and central banks will accelerate the process of de-dollarization. The U.S. dollar's position as the global reserve asset will be eroded. A new gold standard, backed by physical gold, silver, and other precious metals, as well as strategic resources and energy (such as electricity), will be adopted globally, supporting the value of CBDCs. A new regulatory framework for digital currencies and cross-border payments will be established to cope with the currency crisis, and multilateral cooperation mechanisms like the BRICS may accelerate, leading to the formation of a new global economic governance framework.
- Social and Security: Internal Divisions and Conflicts within Nations
3.1 Social Divisions in the U.S. and the Outbreak of the Second Civil War
The mass layoffs driven by the Trump-Musk administration will sow the seeds for a second U.S. civil war. With widespread unemployment and skyrocketing prices, the lower classes will be pushed into despair, accelerating political divisions and social unrest. Street violence will become the norm, and the country will move toward a centrifugal collapse. Combined with