Steemit... A word of advice from an experienced businessman
No matter how much those new to business might want to believe, the laws of physics, humanity and the world won't change just because you have this thing called "The Internet". And this seems to be the underpinning of the current failing of Steemit Inc. and in general Steemit.com.
The same could be true of crypto-currencies in general too. The reality is that money is our way of measuring human perception and a vote in confidence for something. Money is measurable and we simply measure it by transactions. If you buy something, you are demonstrating a positive vote for the thing you buy. If you sell it, you are demonstrating a negative vote against the thing you own. It is that simple. It might be you have wonderful memories of something, but you still sell it. Those that distort nostalgia as an emotion with money are doomed to lose money. Period.
Should you be spending your valuable time & money in Steemit.com?
This seems to be the running question right now. I've spoken with so many people who have demonstrated what I can only call a naive and emotional blurring of reality with Steem applications, particularly Steemit. I have spent a lot of time writing here, although I would argue that I would have written on a website blog, Reddit or some other platform anyway - openly sharing my opinions on things is what I do.
I was slow to adopt Steemit. I heard about Steemit from Jeff Berwick (https://www.dollarvigilante.com) who I respect for his outspoken anarcho-capitalist positions on things that are just plain wrong with the western world, and at least he offered some alternatives to those faults. He was bullish on Steemit from the very start. He cited that posts he had made netted him $20k+ in the early days. This seems to be unrealistic. And the truth is that if something isn't real, it generally doesn't last very long. This is the law of nature on planet earth.
When I looked at this platform, I saw immutability as its strongest attribute. The fact that a post here could not be censored, is extremely appealing. I've been on this planet for over 50 years, and I've seen censorship distort reality way too much. One thing that typically changes society through government is activism and this, coupled with democratic voting, can radically change society for the better. If you attempt to censor activism, you dilute the value of duly elected policies and politicians. Maybe that is a good thing for some, but for the majority it typically never is. Steemit represented a way that viewpoints could be shared and could be made available to the greater Internet, and consequently the world.
This is a gift. This is something we have not had for years. Even if you are a successful blogger, the fact is that unless you have some massive SEO or Google-fu capability, your voice and words are push so far to the back of the Internet that you basically don't exist. We use terms these days such as "shadow banning" to talk to this, but it has been going on since the very first search engine. If someone wanted to search for an opinion on something, they had to first get recognized by Google and appear on a search engine and this took massive amount of luck, work and human effort. Something most journalists were not willing to do.
Google control the distribution of media. They are the newspaper of the 21st century. And Steemit managed to get Google support. This meant that I can post an article and it will appear in search engine results. I can post a link to it on Twitter and other social media platforms and it wasn't squashed. I could see the photo of the Steemit post there on Twitter as I could see it on the platform itself. Finally we had some true democratization of journalism so you didn't need to get a Press Pass to post something.
This permeated through almost all forms of digital media. Just as YouTube could censor or ban an opinion (which they routinely have because the platform is funded by advertising and ultimately they will do what supports advertisers the most - at the expense of openness), d.Tube could not. Just as SoundCloud could ban a controversial Podcast, dsound.audio could not. Just as Facebook could ban a person from posting, Steemit could not. The community would "vote" on the articles based on up or down voting. And that reflected in money.
Money (again) was the simplification of a numerical vote for support for a post. It wasn't about the money in this case, though. It was about popularity. But this is also where the entire paradigm was flawed from the start. And why I have advocated for change here for a long time. But to no avail.
Up and Down Voting is NOT a solution on Steemit
If you are going to give someone your support, then that support should cost you something. This is the fundamental reason why I don't believe Steemit can survive. The problem right now is that anyone can up or down vote something for basically no cost. That means their vote has no efficacy. They have no real power other than "Steem Power" which is a stupid concept to begin with. It isn't because they have more respect or experience or wealth. It is because they got in early, or they invested money into their account, or they managed to game the system by posting pointless and worthless content repetitively. We were told, "Post every day". Well that suggests that you actually have something of value to say everyday.
Reality check: Few people do. Those that have to post everyday, have to spend human labor to do it. And although much of that can be simplified through automation, the message of what is being posted had no actual importance. Sure, I can take a photo of a beach somewhere. And I post it, and get upvotes. Big deal. This is not sustainable because who really cares? And when people spoke out against this, they were shunned because (god forbid) they might break the flawed paradigm that "community matters". A community of zombie followers of pointless drivel is NOT a community. It is a zombie horde hell bent on simply making money and getting upvotes.
Don't get me wrong - this has been a very valuable experiment for me. I have seen just how the market has responded to a flawed product. That shows me just what is needed to fix it. Is it fixable? I don't know if I can answer that. But I can tell you what is needed for this to actually work...
What is the solution? What really is required?
First, there has to be a cost associated with casting a vote. This means you can't just upvote something because your level of commitment is to move the mouse cursor over an up arrow icon and press a button with your index finger on your right hand. There needs to be a real cost. This means you have to give something to someone that has some value to you. This is the basis of medium of exchange, which has under powered society since the dawn of humanity.
If you had to purchase a vote, for example, then giving it to someone is a true vote in their favor. They have to produce quality content. They have to make effort. They have to truly have something to say. Without cost, there is no value.
It would also remove the enormous amount of posting "spam" from Steem platforms. The number of stupid videos taken with a cheap cell phone of someone in a third world country that has free access to the Internet is just ruining the quality of media content on d.Tube. I've been so critical of this over my time in Steemit and I still am. If you can't find quality content because 99% of the crap on d.Tube is such a waste, then you won't use it. You have alternatives. YouTube is one. Why is YouTube more viable? Because there is a "cost" to post there. The quality level must be so high and bad quality content is marked low and doesn't appear on recommended videos, so it naturally falls to the bottom and is forgotten. Google & YouTube have algorithms that do this, and that is the special sauce that is Google and why it is worth so much money.
So two basic things have to change - Votes have to cost something so they are important when given to someone, and content spamming needs to end. Sorry, but if you have been posting daily your "Vlog" on d.Tube, then you are part of the problem. Unless you actually have something to say, stop saying it. You are diluting the quality for everyone else. You may not agree with this, but it now is measured in the business failure that is Steemit Inc.
Hot air lifts things. But it also dissipates quickly leaving nothing but crashing uplifted things in its wake.
Disasters unveil great opportunities
What is left? Something incredibly valuable. We have uncovered the core requirement that must be fulfilled by burning down all the dead growth with the bushfire.
We need a platform that is immutable. We need a way that quality content can rise to the top, and that bots and spamming is curtailed. We need a way that people can vote with something that actually cost them something to acquire, so that its value is real.
If you know of something that meets this criteria, I'm all ears. I don't believe Steemit is that thing. It existed purely on mass speculation of crypto-currency valuations. They are coming down for the very same reasons I've stated here. Hot air can't last forever, and true value has to come from those that vote for something with something that cost them to acquire it. I'm also dubious that any dApp that is based on Steem is able to meet the same requirements. Since the value of Steem is "mined" by upvoting, the Steem currency is flawed. If it was mined by something that actually cost money or effort to make, then I would give its value more credence.
I'm also starting to be more skeptical on Bitcoin. For one core reason - the cost of mining is so high, and the value of BTC is going down, so that at some point the mining companies will go broke. This is the same in mining precious metals. If it costs more to dig something out of the ground than it is worth, then you won't invest in digging it. Will that mean a BTC is worth more? Only if you believe that BTC based simply on its property of being a store of value is worth something. But we have those assets already. Gold. silver, diamonds, etc. already provide that. Why do we need another? If you are storing it, then moving it over the Internet has little point.
As BTC values drop, so do all crypto-currency assets it would seem. Why is that the case? Because this is complex stuff and institutional investors that backed these things don't necessarily have the time to understand what they are investing in. They understand the nature of speculation and how to play that game. They have been doing that for hundreds of years. If BTC is just another asset class, then they play it like any other asset class.
True value of these things will eventually be revealed. I don't know what they are. I do know that true value comes down to one's perception of the cost of acquiring and holding it.
And for that reason, Steem is not something that I have a lot of faith in. I know many will not agree with my opinions here, and that is ok. That is the wonderful thing about the world is that we can all share our opinions. And if you are sharing something you truly believe in, then you actually have something worthy of posting today.
I understand your skepticism in Bitcoin but I think the cost of mining goes down once less people are mining Bitcoin @beunconstrained.
I was concerned of the same thing you are BEFORE the crash and discovered that mining gets more difficult as more people mine and less difficult as less people mine.
So it will become more profitable for people to mine as miners quit - it's built into the blockchain.
I am still skeptic about Bitcoin's long-term potential but mainly due to the Lightning Network. If it will cost next to nothing to make a transaction miners won't have a source of income once all the Bitcoins are mined!
I don't think Steemit Inc. is doomed as it stands now @beunconstrained since they built a war chest of savings when prices were high (USD) but they are cutting costs to make it through this bear market.
I also think you forgot to mention that the free ability to upvote on Steemit was only worth $0.001 Steem at higher prices and I think it is worth $0 Steem at current prices.
So supporting our favorite authors in any significant way DOES have a cost, and I am personally buying Steem Power for this reason - to upvote people I support.
Another thing you overlooked is the secret sauce of YouTube - artificial intelligence that makes recommendations!
@steeveapp is already doing this and if @dtube wants to thrive, they should too @heimindanger.
Bitcoin mining cost is based on hashrate complexity - not number of miners. Whereas hashrate will go up and down due to a number of factors, the general movement is upwards as less BTC are available to mine. This is exasperated by "halvening" that happens every 4 years. The cost of power to mine is relatively fixed cost. The upwards complexity level just represents less BTC output from mining, yet same power cost. Add to this the cost per BTC for mining, and you have a loss based economy. Why was this done in the architecture? Because they banked on Moore's law creating faster computing hardware so that it would keep up with mining complexity increases. That makes sense, however Moore's law and BTC mining complexity doesn't follow any mathematical predictability, so there will be times when BTC mining is unprofitable, and then times when it is. What makes these "bear markets" longer, however, is price speculation and as I don't believe BTC has found its natural price levels, it ceases to be a store of value since value cannot be held for any long time without high risk. It would be reasonable to hold based on the scarcity factor of BTC, but that assumes adoption rates are either maintaining or increasing. Current numbers do not suggest that. I'm not bearish on BTC, as I believe from a technology standpoint it is WAY better than Fiat currency alternatives. However just as Beta didn't win the video tape format wars, it isn't always the best technology that wins out. I do see the potential of a digital currency being widely adopted for worldwide commerce, but I'm just not sure if BTC is going to be it. I do see it as an asset class that isn't going away, however. It is just whether you see upwards potential in pricing and for the short term I'm not sure I can sit on that side of the fence right now. Lightning is great for commerce, but it isn't out yet and it still will require settlement in BTC. Although that might be days later, retail vendors need their cash to purchase new stock to sell, so it will create further mining needs and if there are less miners out there due to profitability, it could reflect in quite high mining fees again.
I'm not going to repeat my bearish position on Steem since it is in the post.
I did reference the power of Google in terms of algorithms for search and recommendations. YouTube recommendations are the key in its success, and there definitely needs to be a viewing portal/app that plays dTube on large screens (e.g. Apple TV, Roku, Android TV, etc.) that supports the viewers ability to hide spam content and only focus on content that is measured in popularity (not upvotes, but view count), subscriptions, and quality recommendation algorithms that hide spam and low grade content. Also the ability to filter by language is needed (I can't watch content in a language that I don't speak, so if it stops me finding content that I can consume, I'm not going to watch the entire network). Maybe much of this could be managed by quality applications that do this, but those apps need to be monetized to get the right developers onboard, and I'm not seeing any economical way to achieve that right now. I'd happily pay money to use a dTube viewing app (I supported the development financially of one for AndroidTV) but it is hard for developers to make a living doing this, so it really never achieved its true potiential.
When I looked into whether or not Bitcoin miners would all start operating at a loss in the future, I read that the complexity of the math problems that miners solve will decrease once miners start going offline.
The article I read said that feature was built into the blockchain to prepare for bear markets like this @beunconstrained.
In regards to Steem, you did mention that YouTube's recommendations was their 'secret sauce' but you never implied that Steem-based apps could fix their major content issues by implimenting similar recommendations.
@steeveapp is already doing this and I have found good authors through their service.
Thanks for sharing this @beunconstrained I watched the whole video.
So it will become more profitable for the miners that remain once some of the big mining operations go offline, but Bitcoin cash might take a serious hit.
RE: BCH. I never had any faith in it. When I discovered the truth behind ASICBoost and how Bitmain had been gaming the system so that they would get blocks before everyone else, I knew that the industry had to leave Bitmain big time. The fact is when you get a massive upswell in money coming in as we saw in 2017, greed and illegal/unethical practices take place to steal as much of the gold as they can. This has happened since the dawn of time, but with technology so much of this can be hidden from plain sight. The implementation of SegWit with Bitcoin was not only a sorely needed upgrade that would reduce mining fees and exchange fees dramatically, but also something all the exchanges didn't want. But eventually they had to cave. When it came to mining, the fact that Segwit implemented code that would bypass ASICBoost meant that Bitmain were left to play fair in the mining world again. They looked for other ways to regain their power, and one way was to buddy up with Roger Ver and pump a fork in Bitcoin. The truth is that Segwit and Lightning Network would remove the need for a fork, but at the same time, remove the advantages Bitmain would have. It seems that Roger Ver decided to do a deal with the devil here, and BCH was born. It was unnecessary and his efforts would have served the community better if he had pushed Segwit adoption by exchanges earlier, but he wanted bigger blocks. They got it, but I think the crypto community may have been smelling a rat all the time. So BCH.... It was dead to me when it first came out, and it is still dead to me. They have even tried to resurrect it with the new ABC and SV versions, but again they are being pimped by those in the community that don't have a long standing level of trust and you can't do business without trust. So BCH.... Not for me.
I think that there was a massive call to make money from no human labor effort (a practice I am 100% agreeing with), but using the fast changing world of technology to do it. What most tech people forget is that if you think that you can invest in a technology and not have to immediately look for the next thing when you release your product or service, then you are in the wrong business. Such is the case with crypto miners. They knew the math and they knew the risks, and many extended themselves way too far, to the point that they could not survive a bear market.
It is the old story of those that "haven't been around the block" have to learn the hard way that markets go up and markets go down. The real players are those that can make it through the down markets.
Thanks @beunconstrained and I agree with you about the real players being able to make it through the down markets.
I didn't buy any Steem at any of the all-time highs and I'm scattering my purchases over the course of at least a year to Dollar Cost Average at an amount that I am comfortable with.
Hopefully that is enough to get a really good position in Steem and do well throughout the bear market and afterwards.
I know it's possible that Steem will never go back up but I generally love using Steem-based apps so I have a different outlook than you because of that.
P.S. I appreciate the videos you are forwarding and will probably watch it during the day tomorrow.
I just tried @steeveapp. I must admit that it is an improvement to vanilla Steemit or Steemconnect, but the recommendations are pretty poor for me. Maybe it learns more as I use it, but at this point although it does help, it doesn't remove the low grade posting quality from my life. And since I don't have the time to sit down and read through posts on it for more than 15 minutes a day, I really need something like this to permeate into d.Tube for me. But it might be early days yet, so I'm not going to write it off - I will, however, stick by my criticism in that I think the level of problems here outweighs the benefits at this time. If that is to change, I'll reconsider my time investment here, but at this point I'm not yet feeling the optimism. As I said, that may change in the future, and I do pivot on these things given the appropriate evidence.
Posted using Steeve, an AI-powered Steem interface
Yeah @steeveapp still isn't seamless either. It works well on my Android phone but not so well on my iPhone.
I personally enjoy @steemit and @steeveapp more than Facebook and YouTube but I expect things to improve in the future.
I never really watched YouTube videos and I don't really enjoy Facebook that much.
FYI: I am launching a Steem-based website soon:
And I am upbeat about the prospects of Steem as ever. I wasn't able to get a 3,000 Steem stake but I got a 2,600 stake with @emafe @emaferice @zaclucasrice and we also donated 100 Steem to @abello, my wife's younger brother 😊👍
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