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Yes, but it's always good to have evidence, otherwise it's just a hunch. The final conclusion is that only STEEM POWER matters, and how it is distributed.

But analyzing this can still be interesting.

well there goes your 95% confidence on a payout < $0.70! btw - I upvoted before blocktrades did :)

Haha, yes i guess I am lucky, i got in the 5% zone.

But you have to remember the accuracy/ datapoint is meaningless, what matters is the accuracy overtime. That it's why it's called a timeseries, many points were outside the confidence range, but on average they should be inside.

Besides looks like i get many upvotes lately, so the model might need re-tweeking soon if i am getting famous.

I will do a research soon on more established people with more posts like @kaylinart or @stellabelle, that will be more accurate.