Prediction Markets Bet on Kevin Hassett — Coinbase-Linked Economist — as Next Fed Chair: What It Means for Crypto and Global Finance
In recent days, prediction markets — such as Polymarket and Kalshi — have surged their odds backing Kevin Hassett as the likely successor to Jerome Powell at the helm of the Federal Reserve (Fed). With probabilities climbing to 66 % on Polymarket and 74 % on Kalshi, this crypto-friendly economist is now seen as the frontrunner — a development with potentially wide-reaching implications for monetary policy, financial markets, and the crypto world.
For anyone watching traditional finance, cryptocurrency, or macro-economics, Hassett’s potential nomination signals more than a leadership change at the Fed — it could mark a shift in how regulators view digital assets and economic growth.
Who Is Kevin Hassett — and Why His Coinbase Link Matters
Kevin Hassett currently serves as Director of the White House National Economic Council under US President Donald Trump.
He previously chaired the Council of Economic Advisers (during Trump’s first administration), and has a long history as a Republican-aligned economist and fiscal policy expert.
Crucially for crypto and fintech stakeholders: Hassett is seen as “crypto-friendly.” He sat on the advisory council of Coinbase, reportedly holds a substantial personal stake in the exchange (in the seven-figure range), and led a White House working group on digital assets.
Because of this background, many view him as a rare candidate for Fed Chair with direct exposure to the digital-asset ecosystem and an understanding of the challenges and opportunities presented by cryptocurrencies.
What Prediction Markets Are Saying — and Why It Matters
Prediction-market platforms have drastically increased the odds for Hassett: 66 % on Polymarket, 74 % on Kalshi.
Analysts — including those at research firms such as Wolfe Research — interpret these numbers as a strong signal that Hassett has become “the likeliest choice” to succeed Powell when his term ends in 2026.
The surge in market confidence suggests that many investors expect more aggressive rate cuts under Hassett compared to the current leadership, which could reshape expectations around interest rates, inflation and broader economic growth.
Given his crypto ties, a Hassett-led Fed could signal — or at least open the door for — a more open attitude toward digital assets, a possibility that has stirred attention across both traditional and crypto-native financial communities.
Potential Implications — For the Fed, the Economy and Crypto
Monetary Policy & Rates
If Hassett becomes Fed Chair, markets anticipate a return to a more dovish monetary policy. That could translate into quicker and deeper interest-rate cuts, easing borrowing costs — a shift from the more cautious stance taken in recent years.
Lower interest rates could fuel growth, encourage investment, and potentially boost risk assets (stocks, crypto), but may also reignite concerns about inflation or financial stability over the medium to long term.
Cryptocurrency & Digital-Asset Regulation
Given Hassett’s background — Coinbase advisory role, digital-asset working-group leadership — many in the crypto industry view his ascent as a potential turning point. A Fed under his leadership might be more sympathetic to innovation in finance and digital assets, and possibly more open to regulation that balances oversight with growth.
That said, a “pro-crypto” Fed does not guarantee a “light-touch” regulatory environment: the Fed’s mandate includes financial stability, and new leadership inheriting existing regulatory frameworks may still preserve strict oversight.
Market Sentiment & Risk Appetite
The expectation of monetary easing and pro-growth policy under Hassett may increase appetite for riskier assets — from equities to digital currencies and speculative investments. This could lead to higher liquidity, capital inflows, and volatility as markets price for potential “crypto + Fed dovishness.”
On the flip side, overly aggressive easing could stoke long-term inflation risks, currency devaluation, or asset bubbles — a dynamic investors should watch carefully.
Why This Moment Is Especially Important
We are at a critical junction: the term of Jerome Powell ends in May 2026, and with rising expectations around a possible replacement, financial markets — including prediction markets — are already pricing in significant changes.
The combination of global economic uncertainty, inflation pressures, and the growing relevance of digital assets makes the choice of Fed Chair more consequential than ever. A shift in leadership could reverberate across global markets, influencing interest rates, investment flows, and the trajectory of crypto regulation — all at once.
For investors, crypto-enthusiasts, and observers of global macroeconomics, this is a turning point worthy of attention.
Conclusion
The rise of Kevin Hassett as the top candidate to chair the Federal Reserve — backed by growing confidence in prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi — signals a potential shift in U.S. monetary policy and regulatory posture toward cryptocurrencies.
If appointed, Hassett could usher in lower interest rates, increased risk-asset appetite, and possibly a more open stance toward digital-asset regulation. Yet this potential comes with tradeoffs: more aggressive easing could increase financial-stability risks, inflation pressures, and regulatory uncertainty in the long run.
For those tracking global finance, crypto, or macro trends — this pending decision could reshape not only U.S. economic policy, but also reverberate worldwide.
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