Active Users On Steemit In The End Of 2018?
How many active users do you think there will be at the end of 2018 ? I have been wondering lately how the growth looks for the active daily users on Steemit so I decided to find out and based on it make a prediction for the end of 2018. I will share with you my prediction in this post.
In order to make a future prediction we must first look at the patterns of the past. But before I get there I want to mention two major things which I think will impact the growth of Steemit to increase much much faster. The first being that the sign up process has become much quicker, and it will be even faster in the future from what I understand. This is extremely important I think, because a lot of people that sign up are uncertain to begin with so if the process ends up taking too long they might end up not following through. I think that has happened a lot, I actually know so from friends that tried to join earlier but gave up. Pity pity.
The second fundamental reason why I think numbers will increase much faster is that the overall adoption and understanding of the blockchain has grown a lot recently. Before only a small percentage even knew what bitcoin is, now most people know, many people are also starting to understand the benefits and the revolutionary nature of the blockchain.
Okay so now let's start looking at numbers. More specifically the number of daily Steemit users. I only want to focus on the active users because in my opinion hundreds of thousand of account that are not being used don't mean anything really.
It's like saying that 50 thousand people bought the ticket to see the game but only 2 thousand show up. The actual commitment and participation is what matters. So here you can see the numbers below and the percentage change.
Date Active users %increase
2017-7-13 23,021
2017-9-13 26,552 15.3%
2017-11-13 27,163 2.3%
2018-01-13 45,165 66.3%
2018-02-13 62,534 38.5%
Looking at these numbers and percentage changes you can see that there has been a huge spike in active users since the beginning of the year. The number of new users has increased dramatically and it's easy to see it in the number of active users. Now I believe this recent spike will continue and we will see continued increases in these numbers.
I think we will see exponential growth soon. To make things a bit easier I have chosen to count an average increase of 50 percent per month from now on. It's higher than previous month but I think it could be the median growth from now till the end of the year. I know this doesn't reflect an exponential growth but represent a median increase I think can be quite accurate. So if we will see an average 50 percent increase per month we would have the following scenario:
2018-03-13 93,801
2018-04-13 140,701
2018-05-13 211,052
2018-06-13 316,578
2018-07-13 474,867
2018-08-13 712,301
2018-09-13 1,068,452
2018-10-13 1,602,678
2018-11-13 2,404,017
2018-12-13 3,606,025
According to this forecast we could have 3,6 million active users at the end of 2018. That's completely crazy right ? I admit myself it's a bit crazy, and I think the end number would have to be adjusted to a lower one. Either way, considering how many active users are on Facebook this is still a drop in the bucket, plus there are so many new platforms which you can use to post on the Steem blockchain. So people don't necessarily have to join Steemit. They might want to use Zapl, steepshot, Dmania or Dtube. There will be millions of reasons to get an account to access the Steem blockchain and I can't wait to see how 2018 will develop . What is your prediction ?
Steemit to the space (with a Tesla Roadster if possible). Anyway new and fresh users are facing a lot of issues with the bandwith. This IS and can be a real problem for steemit's growth. They have to find a solution, first of all to not disappoint your forecast!
My forecast is really a bit crazy and without solving signup and bandwidth the projected forecast will only be a fraction ..
Actually the bandwidth problem will end up making the price of Steem soar once SMT’s are launched.
Anyone using SMT’s will need to buy Steem in order to have said bandwidth!
Great post and im hoping for a lot more. Im actully keen for different sectors such as the not for profit sector in the uk to get invovled with Steem. I had my first meeting last week where i introduced a charity to Steem. Im still working my way to build an audience but the problem with the uk is the regulations to get approval for sites like Steem. Im hoping to personally have invited a few organisations to the site by the end of the year and have a few more meetings scheduled with smaller charities.
Great post keep it up and ill be on the look out for your other posts.
I have upvoted.
SP
Perhaps the folks at @sndbox could be of some help.
Thank you for this. I am currently on draft 3 of a particular article and there are some great ideas on the @sndbox site. Thanks for sharing this. I have been traveling for work (currently in Scotland) so Steem articles have kept me going. This was a great read and somthing i have come back to a few times.
SP
Good to cross paths with you. Blessings during your travels in Scotland!
Certainly good initiative by you ! I definitely think Steem and charity can go hand in hand, The beauty of this technology is that basically everyone in the world can access it and reap the benefits, without greedy middle hands
Great analysis @dandesign86! Are you sure you majored in ID and not in analytics!
Hey, great play with the numbers :)
By the way, please check year numbers with dates and correct them to 2018. This means full second table and last two lines of the first table.
You can also use table html tags when you use markdown as edit mode. Like this:
Thanks a lot buddy !
Thank you! I was wondering how people do this and I am copying this for later.
We're growing with every intake of breathe. With every step erasing the debt.
Well put buddy !
I can’t wait until there are millions and millions of users on this platform all contributing and having fun adding value to everyone.
Steemit is the place to be no doubt about it. Appreciate you @dandesign86
Thanks for stopping by buddy ! This is definitely the place to be - we are in the right place at the right time
That would be an unreal amount of users. If we can get to over 1 million active users by the end of 2018 I would be more than happy with that. But growth isn't usually linear, once we hit that tipping point new users will be lining up to get signed up with steemit. I think that is still one of the biggest hurdles, the onboarding process, still takes a bit too long and people can't start using it right away. Once the sign up process becomes instant we will have a rush of new users.
So back to your question, I think we get to just over 1 million by the end of the year, lets say 1.13 million
I think this prediction seems more reasonable indeed. If we do reach 1
Million Active users that will definitely be awesome as well. I remember seeknfn somewhere that that they have a goal of making sign up much more seamless, basically instant, did you hear that as well ?
I've seen a bunch of different witnesses propose the idea and also create signups that are much easier. I know @someguy123 and @netuoso have created programs for easier signups, but not sure if there is an instant signup that is free yet
That would make a huge difference if they accomplish that. Are you in South Korea right now ? Are they also celebrating something similar to Chinese New Years ?
Yup, lunar new year holiday started yesterday, one of the biggest holidays in SK
The exponential growth is amazing. As one person finds out he tells many people. The word of mouth is great for spreading STEEM
I think things will really move faster and faster, before people didn't join because they didn't trust our understand the technology, now when people catch up they will jump at this opportunity!
Good post.i like it.
Thank you :)