Can we discuss approach to valuing steemit market cap?
Hi everyone - I'd like to put a future valuation on steemit based on the number of users we believe we can grow it to.
**Option 1: pick a proxy like wordpress and take as a ratio their valuation to number of blogs. What are the other proxies that would best fit?**
**Option 2: bottom up **
We could try to come up with a revenue multiple of potential advertising revenue. Siteworthtraffic.com says on steemit we nearly have 50k unique visitors each day generating 230,770 unique page views with a daily ad revenue in total of $231 ($84k per year). I haven't seen blatant advertising on steemit so this is presumably an estimate of what it could get rather than what it does get if it followed an advertising model. Any comments on this as I haven't used site worth traffic before??
An article i saw said in early june 2017 steemit had 171,515 users of which 26k were active in the previous 30 days.
Could we get to 100m active users in 2-3 years? If so the valuation would be 100m active users/0.026m active users on steemit today x $0.084 bn potential advertising revenue today x a multiple X where X is the ratio of advertising market cap: adverting revenue. This would have the value of 100m active steemit users being $323m multiplied by X. Can we use this formula ? does anyone have a good value for X? I saw somewhere a view that it might be 3 x profit. If profit is 20% of sales then X would be 15. So then the valuation of 100m users on steemit would be $4.8bn. Do these numbers pass a sanity check by those that know online businesses well?
** conclusion**
The conclusion from the second valuation is we can get our 10x multiple of today's market cap only if we can grow to 100m active users. I think we can grow steemit to 100m active users (and way beyond as well) but I'm doubtful we can do that in just 10 months. I'd bet on 2-3 years. What am I missing?
This is meant to stimulate a genuine discussion towards coming up with a good valuation and I'm throwing out some initial thoughts to get the ball rolling . If we get some good replies I'll put out a summary post with some conclusions.
I think it would be tough but not impossible.
I believe I saw a post yesterday saying we have been gaining an extra 2k+ users the past few days which is awesome!
Yes the growth feels like it might be the start of an S curve
If steemit had ads on it, being paid in via steem dollars only, and bloggers get a percentage of ad revenue.. that would certainly keep increasing the value of the coin along with the site and everyones revenue in general :)
Thanks @jimbogjones Im fairly new to using steemit much so can you explain why you say if the ads were monetised by steem dollars rather than steem? Thanks
Sorry what i mean't was if advertisers had to purchase steem to buy ads, it would create a micro economy.
Advertisers would purchase steem.. which creates demand for it.
Then the publishers (us) can earn money from the ads rather than just being upvoted.
So steem will go in and out, here and there, and hopefully increase in value :)
Yes I like this thinking
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thank you
It would depend if you could figure out how much money steemit would make by one increased user. I'm not sure how to do that.
Yes that's what I'm trying to figure out - is the revenue the ad-equivalent revenue they could generate in the future or more because they have an app plan of some kind? Question is to the community....
The community of Steem is growing fast! I hope we can reach that goal your talking about once.