09.10.2025, Update Worldwide

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In recent days a cautious hope has emerged in the Middle East: Israel and Hamas have agreed, under U.S. mediation, on a first phase of a ceasefire, including a prisoner swap and partial withdrawal of Israeli forces.
The U.S. and Arab mediators are providing guarantees that this long-running Gaza conflict will, at least temporarily, come to an end.

Crucial questions remain: Who will govern Gaza going forward? What does real disarmament of Hamas look like? And how will the humanitarian crisis be addressed?

For the U.S., this moment holds both opportunities — to act as peacemaker, enhance global standing — and risks, particularly if the agreement fails in implementation. Political resistance in Israel, plus pressure from radical groups, could jeopardize everything.

Possible scenarios:

1.) The ceasefire holds, peace negotiations lead to a lasting solution — including partial autonomy or technocratic governance of Gaza.

2.) Backsliding: renewed violence erupts when some demands are unmet or extremists exploit the situation.

3.) Regional spillover: involvement of other states like Iran or Hezbollah, escalation via airstrikes or proxy conflicts.