RE: Why is Steemit Growth LINEAR, and not Exponential?
Something rotten in Steemland?
That would be jumping to a conclusion. I think a big problems with Steemit is how complicated it all is. It's hard to figure out what the hell is going on a lot of the time, and I've been using it for quite some time. To really learn how it all works and to operate successfully in the Steemit environment you have to invest quite a bit of time and effort, and even then it can be difficult to figure out what's going on. That impedes adoption and growth. My WAG for why you are seeing a linear growth pattern: your actual ~progress~ is closer to exponential; it only looks linear because the platform itself has stalled, and with the bear market, actual use of the platform has fallen dramatically. I don't really have numbers to back this up... Alexa shows overall rank is down quite a bit over the last three months. Perhaps people are not as interested as they used to be, which is par for the course for all cryptocurrency projects.
Google Trends: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=steemit shows search interest has been flat.
Side note: Look at Venezuela! That's a bright spot on the map. "que es steemit" (but even that has declined)
You leave great comments.
"your actual ~progress~ is closer to exponential; it only looks linear because the platform itself has stalled"
I'm trying to figure out what the difference is between actual progress, and how it looks.
Also, if the statement is true, then when the platform becomes hot again, will my actual progress stay the same, and only look better?
Thanks!
So, I left ~progress~ undefined and a bit fuzzy (hence the tildes) because I don't really know what the right metric is... but let's say it's something similar to "engagement", or stealing from e-commerce, something akin to Revenue Per Session (RPS). If you are making steady or even large gains in RPS, but the overall pool of sessions is declining rapidly, it might look like your growth is linear or even declining. So if the platform gets hot again, your progress would look much better. Unless the site got really hot really fast (the pool of sessions grew rapidly). Is there a way to find out what overall site traffic is? Can we look at the blockchain to help figure this out? Is there a site with stats?
This is about the best I can find at the moment. This site is a little TOO decentralized sometimes.
The two metrics that stand out to me are:
I wonder how he gets the data for these... it would be cool to compare yours to site-wide, over time.
Found some good data here: https://steemdb.com/@drutter and here: https://steemd.com/@drutter?page=133 (scroll to the bottom to see the DRutter genesis block haha).
His data is generally considered good, and I believe he's involved with collecting and handing it out. I've seen his posts about it before. From what I'e seen, it rings true. You can clearly see the damage HF20 did, for example.
If you consider cutting spam to virtually zero as damage, then yeah. 😎
Just considering post volume alone can be deceptive.
True, but I was here, I know the damage HF20 did to the site and users. And like I said, you can see it on the charts, too.
Personally, HF20 seemed a great step forward in the survival of the Network; only to be outdone by the potential rocksDB HF release.
This is from a programner's point of view and not from the perspective of the inconvenience to free user accounts on a platform still in beta.