Arsenal Cannot Win the Premier League Title in 2025/26?
The 2025/26 Premier League title race has entered its decisive phase, with Arsenal currently leading the table under Mikel Arteta. On the surface, the Gunners look well-placed: they sit atop the standings with a seven-point cushion, have a talented squad, and exercise strong control over many matches.
However, a closer examination — grounded in the Premier League’s scoring system and the practical realities facing Arsenal and their rivals — suggests that winning the championship remains unlikely. Despite being favorites in many models and betting odds, Arsenal face structural and tactical challenges that could prevent them from lifting the title in May.
This article explores those challenges in detail, focusing on scoring efficiency, squad dynamics, star player contributions, upcoming fixtures, and the pressure of sustaining excellence over the long season.
- The Premier League Scoring System and Consistency Requirements
In the Premier League, teams earn three points for a win, one for a draw, and none for a loss. To secure the championship, a team generally needs around 85–90 points, given the tight competition at the top.
Even though Arsenal currently sit above their rivals — for example, with roughly 50 points from 22 matches — that lead is not insurmountable. Projections from Opta’s supercomputer still place Arsenal as favorites, but with expected point totals (around 84–85) that in many seasons would not be sufficient to win the league.
What this means is that a body of work that seems title-worthy early on may fall short by May if rivals hit strong runs of form, especially given how closely matched the top clubs are in terms of ability.
- Arsenal’s Attack — Creation vs. Conversion
A major factor in Arsenal’s title challenge is their attacking output and efficiency in converting chances into goals. The team has many talented attackers — but goal production remains a concern.
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Bukayo Saka — Creative Talent, Scoring Limitations
Bukayo Saka is one of Arsenal’s most influential players, consistently creating opportunities and contributing goals. However, his scoring rate (for example, a modest number of goals compared to his creative contributions) suggests Arsenal sometimes struggle to turn dominance into decisive scoring margins.
Against Nottingham Forest, Arsenal dominated possession and generated chances but could not score — highlighting how even top players like Saka can be denied by disciplined defenses and strong goalkeeping.
Martin Ødegaard — Artistic Neutralized
Martin Ødegaard remains Arsenal’s creative fulcrum in midfield and is pivotal in build-up play. But in some recent matches, like the Forest draw, he and other creative players were unable to unlock well-organized defenses, showing that Arsenal’s creativity sometimes plateaus without clinical finishing.
Viktor Gyökeres — Striker Productivity Questions
One of Arsenal’s key acquisitions, striker Viktor Gyökeres, has shown flashes of quality but also inconsistency in goal output, especially in league play where the Premier League’s defensive rigor punishes strikers who fail to convert at a high rate. While recent reports note that Gyökeres broke a scoring drought and could build confidence from that moment, his past productivity issues raise questions about whether he can reliably lead the scoring charts.
Declan Rice — Midfield Steel, Not Goal Threat
Declan Rice provides exceptional defensive coverage and balance in midfield, but his goal contributions are low. In the context of a championship race, midfielders who contribute goals and assists beyond their defensive duties give title contenders an edge — something Arsenal lack relative to rivals with multi-dimensional midfield scoring.
- Defensive Strength Isn’t a Title Guarantee
Arsenal’s defense, featuring leaders like William Saliba, is solid — and defensive discipline has helped maintain clean sheets and limited opponent chances.
However, defense must be complemented by efficient goal scoring. The draw against Nottingham Forest illustrated that even if Arsenal don’t concede, they still risk dropped points if they fail to score — and in the Premier League’s tight title races, dropped points against teams outside the top six can be decisive.
A strong defense alone cannot produce the necessary points total without consistent, high-output attacking performances.
- Rival Teams Remain Strong and Ready to Capitalize
Even though projections often put Arsenal as favorites, rival teams have the quality and momentum to challenge:
Manchester City remains a perennial title contender with squad depth and elite experience in grinding out results.
Aston Villa and Liverpool remain within striking distance and capable of long winning runs that can rapidly close point gaps.
Models like Opta’s supercomputer sometimes give Arsenal very high chances, but other forecasts (e.g., CIES Football Observatory) have suggested rivals like Liverpool may have comparable or even superior odds in certain simulations, exposing the uncertainty at the top.
The Premier League’s scoring system doesn’t reward early leads as strongly as it rewards consistency and late-season form — meaning teams that finish strong often overtake early leaders.
- Upcoming Fixtures — The Crucible of the Title Race
A critical element in assessing Arsenal’s chances is the difficulty of upcoming fixtures. While a complete fixture list is extensive, some key matchups and periods highlight the challenges ahead:
Clashes with Direct Rivals: Matches against teams like Manchester City, Liverpool, and Aston Villa are pivotal. Dropped points in these “six-pointer” games have double impact — they not only deny Arsenal points but also give direct rivals a boost.
London Derbies and Mid-Table Tests: Arsenal also face tough games at Chelsea, Villa Park (Aston Villa away), and difficult away fixtures. Historical observations from fan analytics suggest Arsenal have some of the harder games compared to other contenders — a schedule that could see slip-ups even if they maintain strong form.
Furthermore, the psychological and physical weight of maintaining top form through the winter and spring — with fatigue, injuries, and fixture congestion — threatens to erode any advantage.
- Injuries and Squad Depth — A Fragility Risk
Injuries have affected Arsenal’s key players at times in the season. Instances where Bukayo Saka or Martin Ødegaard required assessment for fitness serve as reminders that even small periods on the sidelines for stars can impact results.
Squad depth becomes crucial, particularly when balancing league and European commitments. Teams with deeper benches can rotate while maintaining attacking potency — something Arsenal’s depth does not always match against the likes of City or Liverpool.
- Pressure and Performance Under Duress
Titles are often defined by a team’s ability to grind out results under pressure. Arsenal have displayed moments of clinical mastery but have also shown vulnerability in finishing. The recent goalless draw against Nottingham Forest — where they dominated but failed to score — highlights how pressure games can slip away.
In seasons past, eventual champions have consistently turned dominations into wins rather than draws — a subtle but crucial difference in accumulating the required points for a title.
Conclusion — Arsenal’s Title Hopes Are Real, but Victory Is Unlikely
Arsenal’s position at the top of the Premier League in 2025/26 speaks to a strong squad, tactical cohesion, and exciting performances. Yet when applying a realistic assessment — grounded in the scoring system, squad dynamics, star contributions, and fixture difficulty — a pattern emerges:
Arsenal’s chances of winning the 2025/26 Premier League title are uncertain and, given the risks and challenges ahead, unlikely.
Key reasons include:
Inconsistent attack conversion, especially in tight matches.
Reliance on specific individuals who can be neutralized or miss games.
Strong rivals with equally capable or deeper squads.
Challenging upcoming fixtures that could erode point advantages.
So, it will still be very difficult for Arsenal to win the championship in the 2025/26 season.
