That was quick!

Less than 3 weeks after ripping through my revised $11,700 target and rocketing up to $17,000 in less than 3 days, Bitcoin has dropped back down to approximately that same level in just as dramatic fashion.

While not conforming exactly to idealized blow-off top criteria, I’d say that this was just about as close as we might ever get, especially considering the huge coordinated effort made to distribute as much BTC as possible at nose bleed levels.

I think we've got one for the record books that exceeded almost everyone’s wildest expectations, leaving a “5th wave” on the charts that even Elliott Wave practitioners had trouble believing could happen! Remember when $12,500 was seen as being a bit too much?

The truth be said, we saw this coming from a long ways away. I started talking about the possibility of a blow-off top 2 months ago here and followed the progress along the way, from early reversals right into the final climax moves with lots of interesting stuff in between.

Nothing is straight line in its development and in spite of the head fakes and zigzags, I’d say we did fairly well with our navigation through this exceptional time for BTC – we need to pat ourselves on the back for our collaborative efforts to make sure we all had the necessary information with which to adequately protect our investments, and, most importantly, not be boondoggled into buying exorbitantly high!

Indeed, not bad at all, especially when taking into account that while cautioning about the Bitcoin bubble, we weren’t at all forgetful of a couple of long term winners like STEEM and BTS that were being accumulated at bargain basement prices, and whose phenomenal gains are still mostly intact – there’s no comparing a 300% or 500% gain (from the time of those writings) with a rapidly evaporating 50% gain (as of now). Obviously not perfect, but, hey, I’ll take it!

No, I didn’t expect the bottom to drop out so quickly – thought we had another day or two and not just a couple of hours – but that’s how these things work. Now everyone will start talking about BTFD and the great opportunity to “get on board” BTC, but I think we’ve clearly moved into a bear market where rallies are to be sold (unless you are a long term holder - but be sure about one thing: there will be big winners and big losers in coming months and years, so be sure to pick your long term holds well). There will be rallies: watch out for the Chicago boys, for example, to jump on the $10,000 level once we get there – it’s a big psychological number and the 50% retrace of the entire move from 2015 lows – but I think that all the coming talk about getting back to new all time highs will amount to a lot of hot air, and unfortunately not enough to blow the bubble up again.

A little unexpected, but not surprising at all.

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Disclaimer: As always, please remember that these are just my personal reflections on crypto auction market activity and that this is by no means investment or trading advice. Do you own research, and always be sure to keep in mind that I could be wrong!

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@cryptographic