Is the market cheating us? My special analysis of Bitcoin's 'real move'

How are you all? I hope everyone is well and healthy. In fact, the current situation in the crypto market is such that staying healthy and keeping a cool head is a big challenge. I have been doing a little digging on Bitcoin's movements and charts for the past few days, so I thought I would share my analysis with you.

We have all seen that Bitcoin has tried to break the resistance level of $74,000 several times, but has repeatedly been rejected from there and is now hovering around $70,000 to $71,000. Many people are wondering - is this the bottom? Will we see a new all-time high from here?

When I was looking at various on-chain data and metrics, especially the MVRV z-score, I thought the calculation was not that simple. Let me explain to you why I think so.

For those who don't know, this MVRV z-score basically gives us an idea of ​​whether Bitcoin is currently overvalued or undervalued compared to its original price. Historically, whenever this score reaches the -0.262 level, Bitcoin has found its true 'bottom' or lowest limit. If you look at the major crashes of 2015, 2019, and 2022, you will see that the market turned around from this level.

Take a look at the current situation. Currently, this z-score is around 0.469. That means that mathematically, we are still a little far from that desired 'bottom' level. My personal observation is that the market may give one last big 'shake-off' before making a big positive move. In other words, the possibility of the price dropping a little lower by scaring ordinary traders cannot be ruled out.

Another interesting thing I noticed is that whenever Bitcoin has reached this bottom level in the past, the price has not rocketed. Rather, the price has stabilized within a certain range for a few weeks or months, almost as if it were conserving energy. So it may not be a wise thing to rush and invest all the funds now.

The market is currently trading around $71,400, up about 1% in the last 24 hours, but the picture for the whole week is quite mixed.

I don’t want to rush. I think Bitcoin may go a little further ‘south’ or lower to touch that certain Z-Score level. If history repeats itself, we will have to be more patient before a big move comes.

The crypto market is always uncertain, so be sure to do your own analysis before making any decisions. I just shared with you what I found from my research.

What do you think? Will Bitcoin find support at 70,000 or will we see another dip into the 60-65,000 range? Let us know in the commen;s, we'd love to hear your thoughts.

Stay safe, everyone, trade carefully. Thank you!