Metcalfe's Law Moon Chart Update

TDLR BTFD as they say. If you need a refresher on Metcalfe's law, do your own fucking research: http://lmgtfy.com/?q=metcalfe%27s+law

But if you're looking for some TA on that Metcalfe's Law bitcoin chart that floats around every time a grand prediction needs to be made about price, here's an update on my version of it; I've tightened it up a bit, added some and adjusted some lines here and there like the nonlinear regressions to be equal periods for a bit more accuracy.

BLX Monthly Log Chart

EMAs 8, 23, 38, 62, 100 (thick orange just starting): https://www.tradingview.com/x/t98AJXa7/

• As you remember bitcoin never breaks below the curved dotted yellow baseline that it bounces off of at the end of every market low. It may wick below slightly, but bounces upward forcefully of it each time.
• At the same time it always seems to bounce off the curved dotted green resistance line downward at the end of every market top.
• Fucking massive Bear divergence on the RSI but you would probable expect that in an asset that will follow a nonlinear regression line that was reducing it's percentage gains each cycle. However this will be somewhat relevant for super long term trends of bitcoin should it survive 20-40+ years no problems.
• The linear regression line (Red and light olive green straight lines) are the true average of bitcoin and the ±2 Standard Deviation lines. Put on a log chart the lower bound (red line that's screaming skyward) isn't really helpful, just going up exponentially and unlikely to pursue that path. But the +2 Standard deviation line (faint olive green) seems to be our hard resistance top at ~$9000 and is setting up the top of our triangle. Its trending up slightly and will likely serve as some pretty strong resistance as we move forward until another FOMO euphoria breakout moment.
• The developing monthly (log) triangle in pink if it holds on retest of the lower edge around the $4000 area will be critical for confirmation that the triangle is legit. If that is the case we could be in for some serious breakouts late 2019 possibly, but more likely around The Halvening / Halfing whichever you prefer, in mid-late 2020. Possibly as late as 2021 depending on exact technicals and fundamentals that play out.
• RSI currently showing a bullish swing failure, which matches prices and is our current confirmation that that was at least the temporary bottom, and better than 50% probability that we'll hold that barring some black swan event or major technical change. Hopefully the pattern holds upon retest when we begin to retest the bottom of the triangle as well.

BLX Weekly Log Chart

EMAs 8, 23, 38, 62, 100, 138, 162, 200; VWMAs 362 (light blue): https://www.tradingview.com/x/Kk2RnNvK/

• When you factor in volume weighting the moving averages, longer volume weighted but simple moving averages shouldn't be above EMAs that are shorter, suggesting volume is high which is good for the long term.
• Some test of the weekly 200 EMA (bright green) is highly likely and would be the biggest buy signal I could imagine, assuming we believe this massive weekly / monthly triangle (pink) is basically a fucking huge bull pennant of a sort.
  You could envision the 200 EMA getting into the triangle towards the end of this for the last Ready-Set-Go takeoff sort of breakout pattern setup.
• The pitchfork which I have as 1-9 standard deviations from ATH, held price in the current breakout from 3000s. Losing that is losing the uptrend, which will probably happen here in not terribly long as the triangle consolidates. Breaking to the next level up is very unlikely, but would invalidate most everyone in the worlds' thesis that a "consolidation is coming" hahahah...worth knowing what that would look like (follow the bright red line under current price) ¯_(ツ)_/¯
• You could imagine this being a developing Cup and Handle Breakout as well where we're now forming the edge of the cup, and we'll form the handle in the weeks and months to come. Much depends on how we move through this area.
• Put your targets on that, and it's something like +20,000k around July 2020. If the triangle gets really tight, later obviously.

BLX Daily Log Chart

EMAs 8, 23, 38, 62, 100, 138, 162, 200; VWMAs 362, 538, 786 (light blues to purple): https://www.tradingview.com/x/7Sqbeokq/

• Volume weighted moving averages acting a little more as you might expect, the 338 (sky blue) is moving into the green 200 daily EMA, 538 (light blue) is what's bringing price downward now, suggesting we'll be inside that light blue dashed triangle where the cup's handle will form.
• Daily 200 EMA (bright green) retest seems almost inevitable and will likely hold the bottom of the cup handle.
• The 3 VWMAs (light blue to purple) you can see them all reacting in sequence to the triangle that broke in mid 2018, the 538 is just now reacting to it. The 786 (purple) has yet to, which is where our last push down will come from in a number of months from now. They're something like 6 months apart. So 6 months or so is where the next big buy signal is on the triangle retest.
• RSI Bullish swing failure pattern holding for now, but not likely. A retest of the 38.2 fib highly likely which would coincide with the Triangle correction. Could easily go lower, and even into full oversold territory. The "swing failure" pure definition in there would be sacrificed, but you could see easily how it could go pretty oversold and still hold a bullish bias and probably catch price at least temporarily.

A Closer Look on the daily at current action

https://www.tradingview.com/x/7SOKKRpS/

• My exact call for the bottom was Feb 4, 2019 which ended up being the higher low off the bottom from mid December 2018. I'll take that.
• The Sine wave periods are pretty on point, pay attention. They're not always marking the same thing, tops or bottoms, but they mark volatility. Example, the tether madness was predicted to the day with those Oct 15, 2018.

This gives me a lot of confidence to buy the fucking dip as they say, around 4000-6500 buy zone depending on how it goes for at least that bottom of the triangle bounce, like a sir. Beyond that, hard to say if the triangle will definitely break up, but if it does, be prepared. Safety first.

Just a random dude on the internet sharing his thoughts. Do your own research, I'm not a financial advisor or licensed in any way. I hodl bitcoin and I'm generally bullish long term but not to the point of stupidity, so take that and my thoughts as you will.

**Leave a comment, say hi, say thanks, tell me I suck. Upvote, something, shit. Is this place just bots? Or do we have real people. If you've made it this far, do something that shows you're a person roun' here. Thanks, partner.

***Some free crypto on coinbase earn if you need the invite link because coinbase hasn't sent you the emailz: https://coinbase.com/earn/xlm/invite/3jc4hnm1