Let It Rain

It seems like it has been raining more the last few years than I remember. I moved to Indianapolis in December, 2000 and absolutely loved the weather here. The winters were cold but not too cold with some snow but not too much. Summers were warm with only a very limited amount of time it was really hot and humid. Plus the big advantage is that in both summer and winter there were plenty of nice sunny days.

This year, however, it seems like there have been a great deal more rain this spring. There have been a few nice sunny days with no chance of rain, but not that many. Feels like there is some chance of rain every day. With these thoughts in mind I went digging for some information.

It turns out the 12 months ending April 2019 set a record for the wettest 12 month period nationwide since 1895. Rainfall for this period came in on average across the United States at 36.2 inches, the first time since record keeping started in 1895 for the average to top 36 inches. The surprising thing is this is not a new trend:

Since 1900 the average rainfall across the United States has increased approximately 2 inches using a linear trend line. The trend line indicates an increase from 29 inches around 1900 to 31 inches in 2015. Even with the trend showing an increase over the last century we are still five inches above the trend line estimate. That's a lot of additional water across the United States.

Indianapolis typically gets more rainfall than the average across the United States with the average normal from 1981 to 2010 being 42.44 inches annually. Data from the National Weather Service validates my perception of more rainfall during the last several years.

During the last six years Indianapolis has had above average rainfall and the sixth year was only slightly below average. From the data, the last 12 months ending in April, 2019 indicates Indianapolis has received 3 inches more rainfall than average. For the first four months 2019, January through April, Indianapolis received over five inches more rainfall than normal for the same time period.

For me this has been a problem in finding a time when it was dry enough to plant my small garden or even to get out and cut the grass in the lawn. For farmers in the area the impact will be much more dramatic. While I plant my small garden for enjoyment as much as the food I get from it, farmers plant fields to produce income for their families. Most of these farmers haven't been able to get most of their crops planted.

Depending on how wide spread this problem is we will all feel it later in the summer. Food prices will increase because there won't be that much fresh produce available. A lot of the corn grown in Indiana is for feed corn for animals and to produce ethanol that supplements our gasoline supply. As a result, we may see an initial drop in the price of meat in the grocery store or butcher shop as farmers thin their herds so they don't have to buy as much feed. The prices will then tend to increase due to a lack availability of meat for the butchers and grocers to sell. With the lack of corn gas prices will increase because the ethanol prices will increase.

Much of the world could also be affected. The USDA indicates the US exported $140 billion worth of agricultural products in 2018. It's easy to see how this number could be decreased in 2019.

Climate alarmists will tell you this is all due to global warming, or climate change, due to the man's creation of excessive amounts of carbon dioxide. It's more likely this will turn around in the near future and we will realize it's weather more so than climate change. When this turn around happens, these same climate alarmists will tell you the better conditions we have is simply weather and that long term the climate is still falling apart due to man's impact.

Whether the weather you're having is wet like mine or you have better conditions. I am confident within the lifetime of anyone reading this post there is one sentence you can count on: "This, too, shall pass."