Since bearish markets start after euphoria,
I don't think this cycle is done.
When MVRV Z Score, one of BTC on-chain data, surpassed 3.0 and plumetted below 1.0, then broke 3.0 again, in 2013 and 2021,
There were the last waves of the bull markets.
Therefore, I'd start selling in tranches once the MVRV Z Score reaches 3.0. But I'm not sure it will touch 6.0.
As I previously said several times, useful BTC on-chain data are 'MVRV Z Score, NUPL, Realized Cap HODL Waves, Terminal price and Balanced Price', and they've never approached the Euphoria phase.
Additionaly, about 165k BTC are mined yearly, and I expect that BTC mining companies would sell less BTC to operate themselves.
And the amount of BTC that spot BTC ETFs and BTC Treasury Companies have bought yearly is more than yearly mined BTC.
Since the next 5th BTC halving, yearly mined BTC will be around 80k BTC, which means it will less affect than before.
Thus, the crypto market has changed from 4 year cycle market to a market that both an asset and a currency are affected by the macroeconomy.
Since tomorrow, the QT(Quantitative Tightening) of the Fed will end, and more rate cuts are coming. If there's an uncertainty next year, the crypto market will be promising with the abundant liquidity and low interest rates.
However, it seems that it can't go to 0 rate. So, I expect that the next bubble size will be less than the previous cycle.
Anyways, I hope you catch the Euphoria zone well🙏
@happycapital, fantastic analysis on the Bitcoin market cycle! Your interpretation of the MVRV Z Score and its historical significance is spot-on and incredibly insightful. The comparison to 2013 and 2021, highlighting the potential for one last bull market wave, is a compelling perspective.
I particularly appreciate the emphasis on on-chain data like NUPL, Realized Cap HODL Waves, Terminal Price, and Balanced Price, which often get overlooked. And your point about the halving's impact diminishing while spot ETFs and corporate treasuries increase demand is brilliant!
The shift towards a macro-economically influenced asset, coupled with the end of QT, paints a promising, albeit less bubbly, future. This is the kind of informed, data-driven analysis the Steemit community needs. Thanks for arming us with knowledge, let's all aim for success armed with indicators this cycle!