Starting from today, I threw away the 4y cycle theory.

That doesn't mean I recognize this cycle is done.

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20m of 21m BTC(Bitcoin) are already circulating, which means 1m BTC are left to be mined. Since Apr~May 2028 when is scheduled to the 5th BTC halving, each block can be mined with 1.56 BTC block rewards. It's around 80k BTC yearly. So, even though 80k BTC are released into the market, it would less impact.

Since spot BTC ETFs were approved by the U.S. SEC(Securities and Exchange Commission in Jan 2024, these ETFs have been accumulating around 642k BTV so far.

Additionally, BTC Reserve companies like MSTR have been stacking BTC.

Based on this situation, I think BTC is becoming both a long-term upward trend currency and an asset like U.S. stocks.

Therefore, I guess this 4y cycle theory is done, and it's becoming like the U.S. stock market. Then, the crypto market will be affected by the macroeconomy and monetary policies more.

As I've said so far, the altcoin market has not shown any bubble sign of useful on-chain data. So, I expect that this cycle will be longer.

By the way, has RUSSELL 2000 entered bearish markets without euphoria? I don't agree that the altcoin market enters a bearish market again now.