When the war isn't yours, but you still pay for it | Reflection and Personal Opinion

In many countries in our region, 7% inflation is already relatively common, even considered "normal," if you will. And if we look at more extreme cases, like Venezuela or Argentina before Milei, we're talking about figures that are on another level entirely—inflation rates close to 100%, or even higher. And what happened in Venezuela, well, that was absolute madness. At one point, it reached over 10,000%, which sounds absurd, but it was completely real.

So, of course, one might think: "Well, what happens in Europe doesn't affect us that much; they have their problems and we have ours." But that's where the often-overlooked detail lies. In a world as interconnected as today's, what happens in one region ends up having consequences for all the others, whether we like it or not.

Because when we talk about a conflict like the one unfolding between these countries, we're not just talking about those three. Behind Iran are the interests of powers like Russia and China, and that completely changes the landscape. It's no longer an isolated conflict; it's something much larger, more complex, and more delicate. And when major powers are involved, economic repercussions are usually unavoidable.

One of the key issues here is oil. Everything that passes through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important routes for crude oil transport, can be affected. And when there's uncertainty in that region, prices tend to rise. And if oil prices go up, practically everything else goes up: transportation, food, production… it's a chain reaction.

Europe, of course, is going to feel that impact. In fact, it's already anticipating it with its inflation forecasts. But what's interesting, or rather worrying, is considering how this translates to Latin America. Because it's not the same to face a crisis starting from a solid economy with strong institutions as it is to do so from more fragile economies with less room to maneuver.

That's where things get complicated. Because what might be a manageable increase for a developed country can become a serious problem for a developing country. And we recently experienced that with the pandemic. While some countries were able to cushion the blow with economic stimulus, others simply had to weather the storm as best they could.

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So, although at first glance that 3% or 5% in Spain might not seem to have much to do with us, the reality is that it does affect us, and probably more than we imagine. Because in the end, everything is connected, and when one important piece moves on the global chessboard, the others end up moving as well.

Anyway, it's a topic that gives us a lot to think about. Sometimes we believe we're isolated from certain realities, but that's not the case. And understanding that, I think, helps us see the bigger picture a bit more clearly. Goodbye, take care.

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