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RE: Why I Don't Believe in the Singularity.
Excellent.
I've been, and still am, saying much the same. Recently I read that a neuron is much more like a supercomputer than it is like a NAND gate. If that's the case then the brain is not just a computer so much as a network OF computers. In other words a not so complex biological brain (say...a mouse?) is more complex than the entire internet.
My contention is that "consciousness is an emergent property of a sufficiently complex network"
One question is, how do you design an emergent property? How do you even PREDICT it?
NONE of which should contradicts the fact that technology is advancing at a very high rate of speed. Not only that but it's rate of acceleration is accelerating.
To this I would add "a sufficiently brainlike network". I think it's the architecture of the brain which causes it to automatically absorb information and self-program. But that's just my suspicion of course.
All technology? Has the fuel efficiency of automobiles obeyed Moore's law, for example?
"all technolgy" in the sense that technology as a whole is advancing. Specific instances, like chipping flint, automobiles, and buggy whips, are 'mature' and no longer advance.
side note: some things, guns for example, are 'mature' technology. There's not a whole lot of room for improvement without a radical redesign.