The value of Steem and its users: 1 Steem user = 10 Facebook users!

in #steemit7 years ago (edited)

Steem is special for a blockchain. It delivers a working product used by end users and competes against old school social media companies as on open market driven approach. This is special because pretty much any other blockchain I know of is providing some sort of experiment or solution that is still in developement and hence speculative in nature, meaning we don't yet know if it will work and how.

Examples:

  • Bitcoin. Designed as an end to end currency has to go through development life cycle and be used by a large portion of society before it can become both store of value and currency.
  • Ethereum: Great platform but so far no real applications that have shown to use it effectively with end users in a way that provides advantages over company approaches

There is nothing wrong with this; it is simply part of the development cycle of these techs and projects. We as steemians are just lucky we get to use this tech already in our daily lifes.

Steem is being used every day

Steem on the other hand is making money for bloggers commentators and other social media activities.
Significant is that while we have high transaction volumes vs other blockchains like bitcoin and ethereum these transactions are done by real end users. What I mean by that is examples like @sweetsssj who does not seem to be the averge crypto nut like most of us boys out here.

U5dsQFcRyW42ZEWh8m77SA5K8N2Y1Kp.gif

We can compare Steem to other social media solutions

The other day I asked for the amount of active monthly users steem has and @penguinpablo provided this answer (Please follow and upvote him he is proving great reports):

steem_active_users.jpg

So currently :

facebook-users-snapchat-twitter-youtube-whatsapp-instagram-wechat-qq.png
(source: https://techcrunch.com/2017/06/27/facebook-2-billion-users/)

What are social media users worth?

Lets look at the market cap and divide it by the amount of active users. I have simply pulled the market cap from Google and divided this by the amount of active monthly users.

Steem: 250m / 100k = $2500
Facebook : 485b/2B = $243
Twitter: 14b/328m = $42.68
Snapchat: 17b/255m = $66.67

We can see a very high divergence between Facebook vs the other guys and Steem users are valued about 10x as much as Facebook users.

Steem user are 10 times as valuable as Facebook users.

According to the metric above, Steem users are as valuable as

  • 10 Facebook user
  • 40 Snapchat users
  • 60 Twitter users

At first glance this may be un-realistic however there are a few factors that make it clear why Steem users must be more valuable:

1. Growth Potential

Steem is in its infancy relative to these other social media applications with only 260k users vs a few hundred Millions and Billions. As such Steem has a lot more growth potential and that is represented in the market, since the market does like growth potential like nothing else. It is almost impossible for FB to grow 10x while its possible for Steem to grow 2000x if it comes close to usage as Facebook and market cap (500b/250m = 2000).

2. Reward System with real value

Steem has an integrated reward system that is financial and infact provides a whole financial system. All social media sites have reward systems but they are NOT liquid value. This improvement can only be done with the technology of a blockchain and is an order of magnitude improvement over anything else we have as reward system. A Steem upvote is certainly 10x as valuable as a Facebook like to me. That of course is more of a believe of mine, but if true would mean that Steem given similar functionality should be worth about 10x as much as the other social media sites even without growth potential (i.e. 2B users would be worth $5T.

3. User growth

Steem is proven which is shown by actual users and sick growth. One year ago we had 20-30k users. Now we have close to 300k. That is 10x growth in a year. If this goes on we are at 1M in one year. That would also mean that the market cap of steem has to grow by 10x to 2-3B. Take a look at the growth that @penguinpablo has shown with his data. Now check your account and project what it means for you personally. If the number is not impressive maybe you should buy more Steem. The actual growth and the growth potential of Steem is worth at least one order of magnitude.

4. Users own it

There is one key difference between the market cap of Facebook and Steem. Steem stake is owned entirely by users, while for Facebook it belongs to funds, investors and Mark Z. The value we create here goes directly back to us, or to the people we interact with that provide value to us with their social media activity. This is a much more effective and productive incentive structure and I believe is also worth an order of magnitude in terms of value.

5. Best Coin & Financial System

Steem has perfect connection between its different currencies and seperation and is an entire financial system that can replace the $USD and lots of banking and even bitcoin. It is the only blockchain I know with an effective stable coin (SBD) a great stake coin (SP) and the normal liquid blockchain type currency. This is much better than any other blockchain and way better than fiat money, likes and company shares. While the Steem coins are all directly connected (ultimately they are all Steem) they provide the perfect separation to do stable value, stake and rewards. I think this aspect is least understood and realized so far.

There are tons of other benefits but I wanted to focus on these most significant and structurally different aspects of Steem and its design.

It is not just the money

Money is always important, but to me personally the intangible things Steem has created for me really shows me that it works. A great example is my friend @surfermarly which I introduced to the platform. She has created content I would never have seen and this has led me to meet her in Vegas to celebrate just that and meet other steemians .
steem_meet.jpg
The joy these sort of things have created for me far ought weighs the value of my account to me.

I think Steem is cheap

However this article is about financial value in the eyes of an investor. I think Steem is quite cheap at the moment because I have listed at least 3-5 aspect that improve the value of Steem compared to other social media investments by an order of magnitude each.

  • Steem has the potential to grow 2000x if it reaches the size of facebook
  • Steem has a financial reward system that will trump any existing social media app with rewards that are no more than a virtual thumbs up
  • Steem is currently growing 10x per year
  • Steem is owned by users vs investors which should create better incentive to improve and innovate
  • The potential to also be a global currency system due to its coin separation and super fast blockchain

So overall just one order of magnitude higher price than Facebook is way to cheap for Steem in my opinion and it is fairly likely that we will see a steem price of $10 within a year or two.

The most important thing to monitor will be usage and user growth which we can easily monitor (i.e. by following @penguinpablo). We can keep the comparison of market cap per active user as a benchmark to understand if Steem is currently cheap or not.

I would be very interested to hear your thoughts on the value of steem and its users.

Please upvote and share this article if you like it and comment if you have some thought about what I have written.

Thank you for your attention

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Great analysis. I think it is a very good idea to look for ways how to evaluate blockchain projects. The market will mature over time and the price will be based more and more on those analytics. It would be great if you would provide the value regularly as statistic like @arcange and @penguinpablo are doing so for other aspects (great work guys!). Or maybe they can add that aspect to their statistic they provide?

Yeah, this would be nice!!!
@knircky are you listening? :-))

Agree. It would be handy for us to look at statistic and evaluate the growth. Looking forward for it :) Thanks @knircky @famunger Keep it up guys :)

Great analysis! We are all still early adopters. The best is yet to come!

Thank you for the mentions to my account :)

Could not have written this without you!

Great job. 😊 Feel free to follow me @justynatina and upvote. Cheers 😋

Hi @knircky ,

Thanks for your article

Few days ago i compared Steemit, Steem with Foursquare, Flickr and Myspace in Google Trends:

The last 3 months steem and steemit had a lift off (blue and purple lines) (others are still declining)

https://steemit.com/steemit/@techtek/google-trends-chart-comparing-steemit-steem-with-foursquare-flickr-and-myspace

This is a Google Trend chart comparing Facebook and Twitter over the last 5 years:

Very excited to see that Steemit is experiencing big growth and it sure makes curieus what it can bring the world in the near future!

So many adoptors already, just wait till we get to the big masses.
You now get 10.78 USD for just 4 votes. Imagine you get 10.000 votes for a reply.... thousands of dollars for reply's!

Blog posts could get worth $1,000,000 !

You are over evaluating the number of active users per month. Maximum was reached on 2017-07-18 and is 22k (22445 to be precise).

You can check on my daily stats to have a clear view on the evolution of active users.

That said, having fewer active users only reinforces what you mention about the value of Steemit.

Nice work knircky and arcange, i follow you both, awasome informations. Steemit fundamentals are very strong with a positive loop economy effect.
No doubt adoption will continu to grow at high rate.

I just start to steemit.com and I become addicted :)
I came here every day to see what new and add some comments to the post that I like.
I am 1 of 22k :) that work to make steem it bigger and better.

Cheers for the daily stats @arcange. Highly undervalued content and worth the follow!

what about think steemit is really pay out ! what about to say

So are you saying all this https://steemit.com/steemit/@penguinpablo/steem-stats-active-users is wrong? He has the daily users at 20k, weekly at 50 and monthly at 100k. Also 20k monthly seems low given that we have 100k unique visitors a day according to hypestat. And would be less than 10% active users. Can u please explain?

Obviously if u are right the numbers would change quite a bit!

Here a special preview for you of the monthly values, where "active" means made at least one post, comment or upvote. I will add it to my next daily stats.

That looks more in line with the data from @penguinpablo but still not 100k.

Strange... My figures are a lot higher. I count 23,906 distinct users on 2017-07-18. May: 33,655 and June: 89,950.

I also count the accounts that made a transfer, power up/down or downvote, but I don't think that will make such a big difference.

I will count only the active curators tomorrow to see if I have about the same figures as you have.

i think it is correct to include any activity into the active starts.

Thank you for checking in. It is always good to verify data. It seems clear that the 20k monthly users however cannot be correct so i think overall my analysis should generally hold.

But 60k active users vs 100k is a bit of a strange difference if i read arcanes chart correctly?

Definitely curious to hear what the consensus is on the N* of daily active users after these comments.

For the last 30 days (June 20 - July 20)

All active accounts (including account_create): 105,889
Active accounts (excluding account_create): 80,141
Active curators only: 68,614
Active authors only: 53,510
Active curators and authors: 75,436

What does "including vs. excluding account_create" mean? Is the simple creation of an account already considered being an "activity" though?

Yes, that's right. The creation of an account is the first transaction of that account. But it's better to exclude it, because the user hasn't really done anything.

To calculate the "active" accounts, I have included any transaction that has been made by an account. This can be a post, upvote, downvote, transfer, sbd conversion, power up, power down or even the creation of the steem account itself.

Here are my calculations for the month of June:

Total active accounts: 89,950
Active curators only: 52,750
Active authors only: 42,124
Active curators and authors: 58,904

Good to see we have almost the same numbers :) The difference is, how to define an "active" account. I have included the creation of an account even if the account won't be used thereafter. If I exclude the 'account creation' I count only 62,532 active users in June. To my surprise. It seems a lot of people sign up without using their account thereafter. I did not expect that. I will exclude those accounts in my calculations from now on.

@penduinpablo, we could talk endlessly on the definition of "active user" ;)

I consider authoring (posts and comments) and curation (up/down votes) as the main activity with added value for the platform, hence my definition of "active" restricted to that.

not withstanding possible slight differences between the numbers, I think you still make your point very well. It's also right in line with how I concluded my post "Managing Expectations when trading SBD for STEEM" (also added your link over there as well).

Furthermore, this "dynamic" was also part of my incentive to release my latest script for STEEMIT users: "Post Vote Slider and Past Payout Monetizer... and next, here comes SteemTUBE...!

And in case I didn't quite make it clear, terrific article! :)

Nice to see Steemians linking to related articles offering tons of value, definitely helped me a lot and you have yourself a new follower. @alexpmorris
@knircky

glad you found them so useful @blockchainttmft, upvoted a few of your articles as well and followed. I even "Past Payout Monetized" one of your recently expired resteems as well! lol

Thank you. I had not seen these post I am following you now!

thanks @knircky, can't add anything to that though, was already following you too! :)

So are you saying all this is wrong?

Daily active users looks correct, even if we might argue on the definition of "active user".
For the other values, it is something I need to check.

Interesting. My analysis 4 days ago showed 35,656 accounts have made at least 1 post this month. You know steemit way better than me @arcange, maybe you could have a look at my post and see if we can find the difference, the post is Steemit Retention Problem Database analysis

@paulag, my first guess is that you counted post created by newly registered accounts on a specific month where I count regardless of the account creation date.

But , I would need to see the query you used to accurately find why the difference.

You can DM me on steemit.chat or via Telegram (@VIM_Arcange)

Talking about value: you've just added a lot of it by publishing this article.
Second position on the trending page!!! So proud of you 🙂

Thanks for mentioning Vegas again, it's been a blast!

much love!

Same same :-*

very interesting post.this is my first time here.i found so many interesting stuff in your thread especially its discussion..

Thank you so much! Always happy to have a dialog!

welcome dear brother

My friend as I saw you share a well article please allow me to translate to chinese in order to spread it more to community,thanks! Upvote me if you like this action!
link here : https://steemit.com/cn/@incrediblesnow/steem-1-steem-10

Yes go ahead and translate it!!

I stumbled upon steemit in my crypto research, joined for the money, and stayed for the community. Seriously, I joined one month ago and never have I been proud to be a member of a social media platform. The community of Steemit is supportive and encouraging- there is truly nothing like it on the web! I am so happy to be here :)

Thanks for the post, great write up!

@arbitrarykitten... I took the same path you did. So ditto🤣!

Totally agree!

Great post with positive outlook for Steemit growth.... Like with all the other crypto we are in early infancy with Steemit and the gorwth potential is massive. Like you have pointed out Steemit has a real case use unlike many other cryptos that are in some way or the other clonse of BTC. Steemit is very unique in that way and also in the way compare to other social media since the users can be rewarded for their input. It would be also interesting to see what other features could be incorporated into the steemit platform. Since people are holding real money here it would be interesting to see if those can be exchanged for real products by steem being added to big online retailers such as E-bay or Amazon. I think that would be really massive! Oh, well, who knows, maybe in few years time:).....

Good post. Thank you for sharing.

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