Somehow, I feel this phase is like COVID-19 duration 🤔
I discarded the 4y cycle theory last Q4, and I think this cycle is extended and changes into a super cycle 🧐
In the previous cycles, once BTC(Bitcoin) price increased by 2y MA(Moving Average)×5 line, market overheating, mania and euphoria occured. Then, finally, the crypto market entered a bear market.
However, BTC has never approached even the 2y MA×5 line this cycle, and it declined below the green line.
In the previous cycle, BTC declined below 2y MA line 2 times.
So, if this cycle is a super cycle, somehow, this phase feels like the consolidation during the COVID-19 in 2020.

Great analysis, @happycapital! 📊 The COVID comparison is interesting — both were/are black swan events that changed market psychology forever.
Your chart reminded me of how Bitcoin and RWAs (Real-World Assets) are both reshaping finance. I actually wrote an article on RWA investing — how ordinary people can get exposure to tokenized assets. Would love your expert take: [RWA 500 Billion Dollars: How Can Ordinary People Invest? A 2026 Guide]
Keep these amazing insights coming! 🚀
good
great analysis
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